Nontrivial Pursuit

Bad Day

2011-03-30T05:55:00.000-07:00

‎"please don't take a picture. it's been a bad day."

hear that, philippine broadcast media? yeah, remember that next time you're thinking of shoving your cameras into the faces of grieving family members.

Hello?!?

2011-03-19T20:58:00.000-07:00

Anybody there?!?

It's been more than a year since my last post. Haven't really had the time to blog lately. Also haven't been on a plane since my trip to Vientiane. Let's see, maybe we can still resuscitate life into this old blog.

So when does it make sense to play Lotto 6/49?

2010-02-10T23:09:00.000-08:00

Ok, by "make sense" here I mean you don't lose money in expected value terms; i.e., you're not throwing money in the crapper by spending P20 on that Lotto 6/49 ticket (unless, of course, you think PCSO does great social work and that P20 is your corporal work of mercy for the day).

First let me explain what I mean by "expected value". In games of chance such as lotto, expected value is the amount of winnings (or loss) multiplied by the probability of winning. Suppose the game of chance is tossing a fair coin and you get P100 if heads come up and you get zilch if tails come up, so you have a 50/50 chance of winning and getting zilch. In this case, the expected value from the coin-toss game is

EV = (P100)(0.5) + (P0)(0.5) = P50

So basically the expected value is the amount you can expect to gain from playing a game before you actually play it (e.g., when you're thinking of buying the ticket). Of course, it "makes sense" to play if the cost of the ticket is less than or at least equal to how much you can expect to win. In this case you probably won't (or shouldn't) play the game if you have to gamble more than P50 to have a 50% of winning P100, but it'll make sense to play if your bet is only, say, P25.

Now let's look at Lotto 6/49. The game involves a player picking 6 numbers from 1 to 49 (hence the name). A lotto ticket, on the other hand, costs P20, which the player has to pay if he wants to have a chance of winning. PCSO, which manages the game, then (presumably) randomly selects 6 numbers and publishes it. If the player gets 6 out of 6 numbers he gets the pot, which could run to the tens to hundreds of millions of pesos. Getting 5 out of 6 numbers gets you P20,000; 4 out of 6 gets you P500; and 3 out of 6 numbers results in balik taya, or you get your P20 back.

So, and this is where it gets dicey, what are your chances of winning? If you buy one ticket, then you will win the pot if your exact 6 numbers are selected out of all the possible combinations of 6 numbers out of 49, which are 13,983,816 possible combinations (mathematically, this is 49C6). Therefore, the probability of your 6 numbers winning the pot is 1/13,983,816 = 0.00000007151.

But then winning the pot isn't the only way you can win-- you will also win something if you get 5/6, 4/6, or 3/6 numbers correct. Choosing 6 numbers is like getting 6 chances of getting 5 numbers correct since there are 6 possible combinations of 5 numbers from the 6 numbers you chose. Eh? Suppose you very creatively chose the following 6 numbers:

[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Then the possible combinations of 5 numbers from the 6 numbers you chose are:

[1, 2, 3, 4, 5], [1, 2, 3, 4, 6], [1, 2, 3, 5, 6], [1, 2, 4, 5, 6] [ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6], and [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Similarly, you get 15 chances of getting 4 numbers correct and 20 chances of getting 3 numbers correct from the set of 6 numbers you chose. Using combinatorial mathematics, the expected value from the lotto game can be computed as:

EV = (1/49C6)(X) + (1/49C5)(6C5)^2(P20,000) + (1/49C4)(6C4)^2(P500) + (1/49C3)(6C3)^2(P20)

where X = the winning pot, which can change. The squared terms are there to take into account that both the player and PCSO choose 6 numbers.

Since the cost of a lotto ticket is P20, how much should the pot be so that the expected value from playing equals the cost of a ticket? Setting EV = P20, we can calculate X as... P261 million.

Yes, the pot will have to be at least P261 million before it actually makes sense to play Lotto 6/49. Any pot lower than that and you're basically throwing P20 into the crapper, just like paying P75 to play the coin-toss game above.

But then if buying that P20 ticket gives you the right to hope and to dream about what you will do in the off-chance you will win the pot, then by all means buy the ticket. After all, that's what PCSO (and all casinos, for that matter) are hoping you will think.

Paul A. Samuelson, 94

2009-12-15T19:25:00.000-08:00

Paul A. Samuelson, Economist, passed away on 13 December 2009 in his home in Belmont, MA. He was 94. He is probably best known for his Economics textbook, which, even after n editions, must be among the most widely used textbooks in history. First written in 1948, I used the textbook when I took Economics 11 in 1997 and it is probably still being used at the School today.

In the name of everyone who had to study introductory economics whether as a required subject or as the first step in a life-long exploration of this science, thank you.

Vientiane, Day 1

2009-11-16T06:32:00.000-08:00

Currency: Lao PDR Kip (LAK)
USD 1 = LAK 8,450; LAK 1 = PHP 0.0055

Didn't really have much chance to do any exploring as the whole day was just too crazy and hectic. The main places I've visited so far are the Lao Plaza Hotel, the Bank's Resident Mission, and the Ministry of Health compound. A few off-the-cuff observations:

1. Vientiane is a small city that feels like one of the smaller provincial capitals in the Philippines. The tallest building is the Lao Plaza Hotel where I'm staying, standing at a sky-scraping seven storeys. It's very clean and has a quaint smell of incense in the background, probably due to all the Buddhist temples dotting the city. It's also quite common to see saffron-clad monks walking around the sidewalks. Speaking of which, the city is very walkable-- everything is walking distance, the streets are relatively safe, and the city is well lit during evenings. I also don't see any beggars or street children loitering the streets, although I did see one (only one) taong grasa walking around.

2. There are many, many Western tourists in Vientiane, so many that it takes hours to get through the visa-on-arrival section at the airport. Most of the foreigners are undoubtedly on vacation as I am one of the very few non-Laos who is wearing a suit and tie in this swelteringly humid weather. The tourists are probably here because Laos can still be considered "exotic"; i.e., not so Westernised like, say, Bangkok or Manila.

3. Laotian people are very friendly. They are always smiling and accommodating. On the down side, they are so, um, relaxed when it comes to time. Filipino time is very punctual in comparison. Everyone operates in a very laid-back mode-- great when you're on vacation, not so great when you're organising a technical workshop.

4. I've had two non-hotel restaurants in Vientiane, both of them in the more posh restaurants:

4.a. Rashim's Indian Fusion, right in front of the hotel, serves the shrimpiest shrimp curry and the greenest palak paneer I've ever had-- no ingredient was scrimped. I paid LAK 70,000 for the meal-- not bad, considering the amount and quality of the dishes I was served.

4.b. I forgot the name of the restaurant, but it's a French restaurant that serves Thai and Laotian cuisine as well. I tried some local food: some chicken larb (cooked version) with sticky rice. The larb is basically minced meat sauteed with pepper, basil, and I think fish sauce served with lettuce and sliced cucumbers. The sticky rice is, well, sticky rice steamed (not boiled) and served in a bamboo basket. Although the rice is very glutinous (really a misnomer since rice does not contain gluten), it does not tend to stick to your fingers or the bamboo basket. I paid LAK 58,000 for the meal.

5. The French influence is strong in the architecture and cuisine. Buildings are a fusion of French and Laotian and street names, when written in Latin script, begin with rue. I also see a lot of street stalls that sell what look like Laotian fare served with baguettes. Hopefully I'll get to try one of these less posh Laotian food places before I leave (which is tomorrow evening).

Bangkok, T minus 30 minutes

2009-11-15T02:57:00.001-08:00

This'll be a short post.

Two words set apart the TG lounge in BKK: free massage. They offer free Thai-style foot or neck/shoulder massages to their business class passengers. I got the neck/shoulder massage since I just got a foot massage last week.

On to Vientiane.

Manila, T minus 14 hours

2009-11-14T07:38:00.000-08:00

Going to Laos tomorrow (well, later today since it's already midnight), returning home on Wednesday. I'm taking the MNL-BKK-VTE-BKK-MNL route flying on TG.

Usually I'd be pretty excited to go on travel by this time, especially considering I'm going somewhere not on the usual tourist path. But I'm not. Not really looking forward to being away from my Dear and Lucas. And I'm not particularly happy that this business trip will eat into our weekend, which is always too short as it is.

I'm also travelling with the boss, which should be enough to explain my lack of enthusiasm for this particular trip.

Well, at least the food promises to be good.

Singapore, T minus 1.5 hours: An SQ Birthday Party

2009-08-12T00:34:00.000-07:00

Had a good chat with my friend dr.sbdink over lunch then back to the SQ lounge in Changi and took a much-needed shower since my last one was in Almaty. I correct my earlier post: shower rooms in the SQ lounge are also the room type that you can lock-- very important if you have valuables in your carry-on luggage-- although there is no toilet in the room. So on that small detail, and the Noodle Bar, the CX lounge in HKIA still trumps the SQ lounge. But just by a hair.

Just a few hours til I'm back home, Dear.

---

I spent much of my birthday on the plane, boarding in Almaty at 3am, spending five hours in Istanbul, one hour in Dubai, then by the time I landed in Singapore it's already 7am the next day. So I told this to one of the flight attendants in SQ when I boarded SQ491 in Istanbul, hoping maybe for some extra dessert. Well, they exceeded my expectations by a mile. First they gave me a small SQ teddy bear with my meal. It was a very nice gesture, which already made my day.

Around an hour after the meal service, the flight attendants (plus one passenger who got tagged along) went by my seat with champagne, a makeshift birthday card, and a well-drenched rhum cake and sang me happy birthday. They really put in some effort to make the card and decorate the plate for the cake, and were even apologetic about the outcome.

Of course I would have preferred to spend my birthday at home-- it would have been my first birthday after our marriage-- and was quite bummed by the whole situation of being away. I guess the crew at SQ419 picked up on this and tried to make my birthday that much more special and memorable. And they were very successful indeed.

To the Crew of SQ491 on 11 August 2009: thank you very much. It was truly sweet and thoughtful of you. You're the BEST!

Istanbul, T minus 2.5 hours

2009-08-11T00:42:00.000-07:00

Well, I made it here. There was no hassle whatsoever in Almaty; in fact, they were pretty nice and professional. The airport wasn't so bad too, although there was no lounge for us travelling on TK. From what I saw, I don't get why ALA has such a reputation. But then again it did happen to a colleague at the Bank. Oh well.

On my way to SIN then home to MNL. Will probably have lunch with dr.sbdink in SIN then back to the airport for the flight home.

I can't wait to be back home with my Dear again.

Almaty, T minus 9 hours

2009-08-10T04:47:00.000-07:00

I'm leaving Almaty in the wee hours of tomorrow morning, which happens to be my birthday. It's been an exhausting trip through remote areas of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, but it was a success and finally over. In a way I consider myself lucky-- I've visited places on the Silk Road that would otherwise have been out of my reach.

So far Almaty has been a nice experience-- nice mix of modern and Soviet architecture, relatively safe to walk around even at night, and a gourmet supermarket just a three-minute walk from where I'm staying. The weather has also been nice and warm, although every afternoon there are gale-force winds that are strong enough to unbalance me. Unfortunately, Almaty International Airport has a bad reputation of having officers who intimidate foreigners into giving bribes. I actually heard from the resident mission here that a staffer from Manila recently had to pay $100 in bribes at the airport. I really hope that doesn't happen to me.

Next update in Istanbul. Hopefully.

Almaty, Day 2

2009-08-08T05:47:00.000-07:00

Currency: Kazakhstan Tengge (KZT)
USD 1 = KZT 150; KZT 1 = PHP 0.32

Arrived in Almaty, Kazakhstan, last night after a long day on the road. Kazakhstan is flat as Kyrgyzstan is mountainous. Will post landscape pics (of both countries) soon. See the pictures of Almaty here.

I'm staying at the Alma-Ata Hotel-- Alma-Ata was how the Soviets called Almaty. Built in 1967, the hotel has a fascinatingly Soviet feel to it from the architecture down to the furniture. At KZT 20,000/night, it's one of the cheaper hotels in Almaty, but I like it. I can almost imagine Soviet spies cooking up conspiracies in one of the rooms.

Almaty is basically a much richer version of Bishkek. Immediately you see the same Soviet-style buildings and layout, but beside these are Western boutiques, five-star hotels, and high-end stores. There are also a lot more high-rise buildings and construction, a building spurt due to Kazakhstan's oil wealth.

Almaty has a more varied collection of cuisines than Bishkek, mostly catering to European rather than Asian tastes despite the proximity to China. There is even a a high-end supermarket near my hotel-- the Stolichniy Supermarket-- which is most comparable to Mollie Stone's in the Bay Area (Rustan's Fresh would be the closest in Metro Manila).

It's definitely more expensive in Almaty that in Bishkek. I've so far had three restaurant meals in Almaty and the average price I've paid was KZT 1,500 per meal. Cheaper meals like some plov and meat can be had in Almaty for around KZT 500-- not really cheap but cheap enough.

I'm staying in Almaty until Monday, so I have yet to earnestly tour the city. But from what I've seen, I have to say... I LIKE! (Sorry, just had to put that in somewhere.)

Naryn Oblast, Days 1 and 2

2009-08-06T09:12:00.000-07:00

Back in Bishkek now but we spent the last two days in Naryn Oblast, visiting everything from the centre to the southeast of Kyrgyzstan near the border with China. Among other places whose names I can barely remember, we visited Kochkor and At Bashy, slept in Naryn (below is the town centre monument), and made a detour to Tash Rabat, which was the the highlight of our trip.

It was a very exhausting trip, being on the road for almost 8 hours in a day. We stayed at a guesthouse that had no heating or hot water; the evening weather, by the way, was a crisp 9 degrees Celsius and constantly raining with intermittent hail. That said, and now that we're back in civilisation, it was a good experience, probably closest to Ian Wright-esque travel that I'll get.

The BBC put it mildly when it said that Kyrgyzstan is a country of "striking beauty and towering peaks". The better to describe the landscape are stunning and breathtaking. It's almost an entire country full of possible wallpaper shots. Speaking of which, here's my current wallpaper (taken at Tash Rabat):

I took a lot of pictures during this trip (using my Dear's camera, of course). Will post pics when I get the time. Have to sleep now, going to Almaty, Kazakhstan, tomorrow at 5am (that's six hours from now).

Bishkek: Sights and Landmarks

2009-08-03T09:29:00.000-07:00

No captions. Yet. Soon. I hope. Here.

Istanbul, T minus 1.5 hours

2009-08-01T05:48:00.000-07:00

Spent the last 7 hours in IST doing work in the airport. Stayed the whole time in the TK lounge n Ataturk. So here I am in one of he most awe-inspiring cities in the world, I have a valid Turkish visa that set me back P3,150, and I'm stuck in the airport.

Well, at least I'll be boarding in an hour. Here are a few pics.

Dubai, T minus 30 minutes

2009-07-31T16:25:00.000-07:00

Just a quick post-- in DXB now for a brief stopover on the way to IST.

Lots of Filipino workers here in the airport-- one was even kind enough to let me ride the airport trolley.

Singapore, T minus 2.5 hours

2009-07-31T05:50:00.000-07:00

At the SQ lounge (officially the Silver Kris Lounge) in Changi Airport. It's official-- the CX lounge in HKIA is the BEST. The SQ lounge is not bad, for sure, but the CX lounge trumps it in two important ways. One, the CX lounge has hotel-like private bath/shower rooms, while the SQ lounge is more like an upscale gym shower room. Two, freshly made food is available at the CX lounge (in the Noodle Bar), while food in SQ is the buffet type.

That said, the food in the SQ lounge is very good-- very nice selection of Singaporean dishes plus the all-important steamed rice (most lounge fare are just finger food, hardly satisfying).

I have about two hours before my flight to IST-- a 13-hour flight with a brief stopover in DXB.

A few pics:

Changi Airport Duty Free Area-- the gate for my flight to IST is E28

Silver Kris Lounge

supper in Singapore

Til the next post.

Manila, T minus 1.5 hours

2009-07-30T23:57:00.000-07:00

At the SQ lounge in NAIA now, waiting for my MNL-SIN flight. Eating some fish fingers and siopao while sipping tea. Had a dizzying cab ride to the airport and my rhinitis is very much annoying me right now. Plus I have a paper which I have to submit within the weekend, so I'll be working on the plane and into IST-- I'll probably have to spend my 10-hour layover in the TK airport lounge to finish the paper.

And it's only the beginning of what promises to be a stressful trip.

---

I miss you so much, Dear. Take care over here. Can't wait to see and hug you (both) again.

Manila, T minus 3 days

2009-07-27T09:15:00.000-07:00

I'm going on a research trip this Friday, will be out for about two weeks. Here's my itinerary (in IATA airport code): MNL-SIN-DXB-IST-FRU/ALA-IST-SIN-MNL. The FRU-ALA leg will be by land. Might go around IST on my way to FRU, since I have a 10-hour stopover there. Might also have lunch with dr.sbdink in SIN on my way back to MNL.

It will be my third time in Kyrgyzstan and my first time in Kazakhstan, and in both countries we will be visiting different far-flung villages. Kyrgyzstan is officially my third most-travelled country after the Philippines and the United States. Need to brush up on "Говорите по-английски?", "Я не понимаю", and "Где туалет?".

I'll be spending my birthday on a plane. I'll be departing from ALA at 3am on my birthday, stop for two hours in IST, then fly to SIN where I'll land at 7am the next day. Since I'm travelling from West to East, about three hours will even be shaved off my birthday. Maybe they'll serve cake for dessert on SQ.

Rest in Peace, Robert Strange

2009-07-06T07:43:00.000-07:00

Robert Strange McNamara, US Secretary of Defence from 1961 to 1968, has died at the age of 93. He was best known for being at the centre of two of the 20th Century's most cruicial events-- the Vietnam War and the Cuban Missile Crisis. One was his worst failure, the other his greatest success, but in both instances he displayed unflinching and amoral rationality, where the only golden rule was the good of the country.

One of his greatest contributions was to put rigourous analysis into public policy and planning. A trained economist and statistician, one of his early jobs was to maximise damage while minimising losses during World War II bombing sorties, probably using linear programming that any economics student knows today. Although nothing was said about his readings of Nash or Harsanyi, his analysis and actions during his tenure as Defence Secretary exhibited game theoretic brilliance.

To end, I give you his Eleven Lessons:

1. Empathise with your enemy
2. Rationality will not save us
3. There's something beyond one's self
4. Maximise efficiency
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
6. Get the data
7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
10. Never say never
11. You can't change human nature.

Taipei: Scenes and Cuisines

2009-06-27T11:24:00.001-07:00

See the pictures here.

Taipei, Day 2

2009-06-12T18:37:00.000-07:00

USD 1 = TWD 32.44; TWD 1 = PHP 1.45

Arrived in Taipei yesterday, spent much of the afternoon and early evening walking around the hostel, which is in the city centre.

We are staying at the Taiwan Key Mall Traveller Hostel, which is right in front of the Taipei Main Station. As far as accommidations go, it is pretty basic in the most basic sense of the term-- do not stay here if you expect hand-and-foot service, although the staff (two of them Filipino) are very friendly. They do serve free breakfast though, which is a deal considering a "suite" costs around USD 25/night. The hostel is actually located in a residential-commercial building, and the first few floors are an electronics mall and restaurants (all Japanese). The hostel's rooms are also found in separate floors and areas of the building, so beside your room could be a school, a residential unit, or even a small office.

My first impression of Taiwan: it's a grittier version of Hong Kong, but less gritty than Manila. There are lots of scooters parked on every sidewalk, and I could just imagine what rush hour could look like with all these scooters on the street. Food is always nearby with hawkers or restaurants just a few steps away.

Tried the famed pearl milk tea (or bubble tea), which was much better than the stuff we get in Manila. A large serving costs TWD 35, but they use actual black tea and milk instead of the powder mix we get back home. They are also generous in their serving of "pearls", and for the first time my drink ran out before the pearls.

Today my Dear is going to spend most of the day with her friends in preparation for the concert they will attend tonight (I'll put the link, but my Dear does not like it when I tell everyone about her fangirling). I'll probably spend the day walking around Taipei.

Manila, T minus 7 hours

2009-06-11T09:40:00.000-07:00

Flying out to Taipei, Taiwan, in a few hours. We got our tickets dirt cheap-- $50 MNL-TLP-MNL via PR. The main purpose for going there is for my Dear to watch this concert with her friends on Saturday. I'm not watching that concert, so I have to find things to do in Taipei. Anyone know of a good walking tour? Of the culinary kind?

Taiwan, which calls itself the Republic of China, is a pretty interesting case-- a de facto state with all (or most of) the requisite state-making activities, but very few countries recognise it as a state, lest they incur the People's Republic of China. This gives rise to a few conventions on how to refer to Taiwan in official documentation: Taiwan, China; Taiwan, Province of China; Taiwan,China (yes, without the space). All in an effort not to piss off the country with the largest standing army in the world.

Anyway, will try to get some sleep. Gotta get the body's defences up. The risks of travel in the time of AH1N1.

Hong Kong and Macau: Sights and Scenes

2009-04-19T03:37:00.000-07:00

See the pics here.

Hong Kong, T minus 2 hours

2009-04-12T23:39:00.001-07:00

Had a great time in HKG with my Dear. On our way home, waiting at the HKIA lounge. Back to reality.

Hong Kong, Day 1

2009-04-09T02:10:00.000-07:00

(USD 1 = HKD 7.17; HKD 1 = PHP 6.68)

Arrived in HKG after a day with a lit of hiccups, including having the misfortune of picking the line staffed by slowest NAIA immigration officer ever. But all's well that ends well, and we're at the hotel having some rest before we head back out and get acquainted with the city's transport system (thanks to Carol and Prince for lending us their Octopus Cards).

A few price indictors: HKIA-Mongkok hotel transport = HKD 130.00; big and high-quality turkey sandwich = HKD 20.00; ham and egg bun = HKD 5.50; pork floss bun = HKD 8.00; 1.5 litres distilled water = HKD 9.00.

Manila, T minus 18 hours

2009-04-08T02:58:00.000-07:00

My Dear and I are going to Hong Kong tomorrow, our first overseas trip together. I've been to the Fragrant Harbour many times before, but I've never really been there since my previous visits have mostly been in transit to LHR or SFO. So I'm quite excited about this trip since it would practically be a new place for me to visit, not to mention I'm going there with my Dear.

We will be staying in Mongkok, which is the busy but affordable shopping and dining part of Hong Kong in the Kowloon Peninsula, and whose name supposedly and aptly means "busy corner". So now you know our priorities for going to Hong Kong-- one of our first stops is going to be Sino Centre, upon the insistence of my Dear because that's where she plans to buy some K-pop stuff.

We haven't sorted out our complete itinerary yet, and we're not sure if we want to have a detailed tour plan-- one of the joys of travel is getting lost (and finding your way back, of course). If time allows we may even make a side trip to the former Portuguese territory of Macau. Maybe I can use some of the stuff I learned in Portuguese 11 more than a decade ago. Onde e o banheiro no seu restaurante?

The Last Late Night Good Night

2009-02-21T19:26:00.000-08:00

Good night, Conan. Thanks for 16 years of immature, childish, and arbitrary humour. We loved it. See you in LA.

Phone Scam: Identity Theft in Manila

2009-02-13T00:18:00.000-08:00

First, this is not from some floating email-- this happened to me, twice. I already reported it to one of the banks mentioned and it seems they're not aware of it happening-- they were very appreciative that I reported it to them. Read this and be warned.

It seems Filipino scammers are getting into identity theft these days. It begins with your name and phone number-- how they get it, how they got mine, I don't know. The caller, usually a female, will say you have been pre-approved for a credit card or a loan, and will even explain what you can get (loan amount, interest rates, terms of payment, etc.). Then they will ask you for information for security purposes, ostensibly to confirm that you are who you say you are. Here's my experience:

Incident 1: Caller claimed to be from Metrobank Blumentritt branch, said I was pre-approved for a credit card. I actually have a pending credit card application with Metrobank, so this wasn't a complete surprise to me. She asked for my birthday, which I gave thinking my card application has been approved. Then she asked for my mother's maiden name and billing address, which sounded alarm bells in my head. I told her they should know that information and they can just send the card to my billing address. She was irritated and asked for my information again, saying that my card will be cancelled if I don't give it to her. I refused and asked for her contact information instead. She refused, said my card will be cancelled, and hung up.

Incident 2: Caller claimed to be from Citibank Savings Ortigas branch, said I was pre-approved for a car or home loan. She went on to say that I can borrow from P300k to P2M, low interest, three to 12 years to pay, etc. She then asked for my credit card number, monthly income, and taxpayer identification number (TIN). I refused to give the info and lied about my income just to get more information from her. I got her name and contact info and reported her to Citibank Savings Ortigas-- the real one-- and they were unaware that such a scam was taking place. I told them to warn their customers because a Citibank customer who is unaware of the scam might have given up the info. They were very happy I brought this to their attention.

Piece of advice-- never give information to unsolicited callers, even if they claim to be from your bank. They should know the information they are asking from you, and if you think it might actually be your bank, call them yourself using a publicly listed number and go from there.

If you get a similar call, get as much information on the caller and report it to the bank concerned (get their number from their official website). They will be more than happy to know that their name is being used illicitly and will take actions to protect their customers.

Lastly, be careful. They know your name and telephone number, so they probably know where you live. Don't let them know you're onto them. Just ride out the call and don't give any vital information.

One week hence

2009-01-22T00:01:00.000-08:00

Esta es mi promesa solemne.

Woman on Top: Liaena Hernández Martínez

2008-12-22T15:08:00.000-08:00

Liaena Hernández Martínez

Member of Parliament
Republic of Cuba

Born in 1990 in Manuel Tames, Cuba, in the country's Guantamo Province.
Volunteered for active military service under the Servicio Militar Voluntario Femenino.
Served for seven months in the Brigada de la Frontera, an all-female brigade guarding the border with America's Guantanamo Bay Naval Base.
Elected to the Cuban Parliament in March 2008 to represent her home town of Manuel Tames, making her the youngest member of parliament.
Touted as the future of Cuba's communist revolution, representing women and youth empowerment. ¡A las armas, valientes, corred!
Read more about her here (BBC), here, and here.

Manila, T minus 6 hours

2008-12-14T08:54:00.000-08:00

Leaving for SFO in a few hours. Taking NW this time, instead of my preferred airline CX. I'm not particularly looking forward to NW's bad food and unpleasant stew... flight attendants. But this year, for MNL-SFO-MNL tickets, NW is $162 cheaper than CX so I figured the savings was greater than the monetised value of better service. I hope I won't regret this choice the next time I have to ask for water.

This is a time of great flux for me, so this trip is especially significant.

---

I'll miss you so much, Dear. Take care and be safe. 사랑해.

Remembering the Battle of Manila

2008-11-09T06:14:00.000-08:00

Just watched Remembering the Battle of Manila, a two-hour documentary on the 1945 battle produced by Japanese television network NHK and aired on the History Channel.

The documentary had a very objective tone-- no sentimentality or emotion. There was a good amount of discussion on objectives and tactics but hardly any mention of politics or motives. The overarching message, though, was that most of the 100,000 Filipino civilian casualties and the almost total destruction of Manila was a result of American bombardment. Which is quite accurate-- most of the deaths and destruction in Manila in 1945 were indeed caused by the American forces' indiscriminate use of force. There are a lot of interviews with people-- Filipino civilians, American and Japanese soldiers-- who witnessed the battle and one can get a good picture of the suffering it caused. One stark image is the destruction of the Philippine General Hospital by American bombers, who attacked the building and its thousands of patients and refugees "despite red crosses painted on the roof".

However, what troubles me about this documentary is what it does not say. While it makes an indictment of American conduct during the battle, Japanese actions are mostly portrayed as defensive maneouvres. While it does mention Japanese "outrages" committed against civilians in the name of "anti-guerilla offensives", it makes no adequate description of the gravity or the cruelty of these atrocities. At one point it mentions the "Japanese anti-guerilla offensive" and "Filipinos fighting Filipinos" (i.e., revenge attacks against the makapili) as reasons, apart from indiscriminate American bombing, for Filipino civilian deaths, without any mention of scale or context as if the two reasons carried equal weight.

While I didn't expect this documentary-- or any historical documentary-- to be totally objective, I did expect factual proportion. In terms of scale, American bombs indeed killed more Filipinos and demolished more buildings, but the Japanese are at least equally to blame for the carnage. The Americans were indiscriminate and reckless in their use of force, but the Japanese were rabid and sadistic in their retaliation, ordering their troops to fight to the last man and "annihilate all guerillas", guerilla being understood by the interviewed Japanese soldiers to mean any Filipino man, woman, or child. While there were many graphic pictures of the victims of American bombs (women and children in particular) and even video of Filipinos mobbing a makapili, the only pictures of Japanese atrocities were Filipino men executed with their hands tied behind their backs.

Most troubling about this documentary is that it's primarily meant for a Japanese audience, being translated into English after it was made. If PBS made this documentary for an American audience it would be a soul-searching second look at America's actions in Manila deserving of a commendation. But it's not. The documentary was made by NHK for a Japanese audience, making it an exercise in washing their hands of guilt. Far from just "remembering the battle of Manila", this looks and feels more like a jab at self-vindication, as if saying, "Hey, the Americans killed more Filipinos than we did; we were just defending ourselves." To lay the blame for the destruction of Manila and the death of 100,000 civilians at the foot of the Americans with only passing mention of Japanese atrocities is, to say the least, dishonest.

That NHK gave an unbalanced account under the veneer of fact and objectivity makes this documentary unethical. That Japan, unlike Germany, has not truly reconciled itself with its wartime conduct makes this documentary offensive. That militarist and revisionist elements are gaining clout in Japan makes this documentary dangerous.

I was wrong

2008-11-05T07:21:00.000-08:00

I thought America will fail the world yet again. I was wrong.

I thought negative campaigns and insinuations will form most opinions. I was wrong.

I thought refreshing high-road politics will be drowned out by the old, dirty tricks. I was wrong.

I thought the Republican political machine will delay the results with lawsuits and technicalities. I was wrong.

I thought fear and ignorance will drown out reason and nuanced thinking in the electoral debate. I was wrong.

I thought hundreds of years of hate and racism will prevail over hope and change. I was wrong.

I thought America would not, could not, elect Barack Obama. I was wrong.

I've never been so glad to be wrong.

Poll Dancing

2008-10-29T23:11:00.000-07:00

My $1 tip on the ups, downs, spins, and gyrations of slippery polls.

If you've been following the US presidential elections (you really should even if you're not American, because the US president affects you so much as your own president) you'd be constantly bombarded with opinion polls, most of them saying that Obama has a lead over McCain. Some will say that Obama has a "commanding" or "clear" lead, while others will insist that McCain is in a tie with his opponent. So what is it, really?

Without going into technical detail, let us interpret for ourselves what the polls mean without the spin. Take this table from Real Clear Politics (as of 29 October 2008, 2300H Pacific Time), which convenietly summarises the major US election polls (click for a clearer image):

First of all, see that top line with the RCP Average? Forget it exists. It means absolutely nothing. It makes no sense to get the average of different surveys taken on different dates with different questionnaires and different samples and different methodologies. And to show how sensless it is they even highlighted it in yellow.

The first thing you should look for in any survey is the margin of error (MoE in the table), which, assuming the survey is methodologically sound, depends solely on the sample size. Say the Rasmussen Reports, with a sample size of 3,000 likely voters and MoE = 2.0 (it should really be 1.79), finds that 50% of their sample supports Obama. The MoE imples that overall support for Obama in the population (i.e., all American voters) is probably somewhere between 48% and 52%. Likewise, McCain's 47% support in the survey implies that support in the population is probably somewhere between 45% and 49%.

So, is Obama's 3-percentage-point lead "clear", or "dead even"? As a rule of thumb (i.e., without having to use a calculator), a difference can be reported as significant if it is greater than or equal to (MoE x 2) + 1. Using this formula, for MoE = 2 the difference should be at least 5 percentage points for us to say that Obama has a significant lead over McCain (i.e., beyond the margins); thus, Obama's 3-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports is actually a statistical tie.

Looking at the table, then, we can see that the only surveys where Obama has a significant lead over McCain are Gallup (Expanded), ABC News/Wash Post, and Pew Research. All the other surveys have Obama and McCain in a statistical tie. That said, all the polls put Obama in a marginal, if not significant, lead. Either Obama leads by a small amount or he leads by a sizeable margin. So, going by the polls, I'd have to say that Obama is the frontrunner in this election. Overall, assuming the surveys were conducted scientifically, the elections are still Obama's to lose and McCain has an uphill battle ahead.

However, this being America and Obama being not white, I actually think McCain is still the candidate to beat. Obama has to run a perfect campaign 100% of the time, while McCain only needs one innuendo that sticks to grab the election. Whether he relishes it or not, McCain has hundreds of years of racism, prejudice, and cynicism on his side. Never underestimate the power of hate, fear, and ignorance in America.

I sure hope I'll be proven wrong next week.

McCain fighting for America!

2008-10-21T04:56:00.000-07:00

Finally, McCain is taking it to Obama, and taking it hard. First the terrorism link and now calling Obama a socialist for wanting to "spread the wealth around" (Obama's words). Yeah, who the $#%@ wants that? Who the $#%@ cares about the poor during an economic crisis? McCain's plan is so much better-- don't give the poor tax breaks so the rich won't have to be taxed more. Trickle-down economics has been working so well anyway.

So McCain slipped up by saying Obama is a decent family man, but we now have the McCain-Palin we've always wanted-- name calling and fear mongering.

Obama is just so wrong for America. Obama, that madrassah-studying, terrorist-palling, income-redistributing, Jeremiah-Wright-following, smooth-talking closet Muslim/Arab poser for the US presidency. It's true, I heard it on Fox News. Only fair and balanced facts from Sean Hannity.

I'm so glad McCain is taking it to Obama. Really nothing like hate, fear, and ignorance to get him back up in the polls.

Word of the Day

2008-10-13T11:52:00.000-07:00

Ever have one of those days when a word or a name gets stuck in your head? It's like the dreaded last-song-syndrome but without the melody. Even worse, you can't easily place where and when you heard it, and its meaning momentarily escapes you. Here's mine for today:

Botifarra

A Catalan sausage made of raw pork and spices, related to the Portuguese linguiça and Spanish longaniza. Read about it here (Google English translation here).

Also a Catalan card game.

And the winner is...

2008-10-13T10:54:00.000-07:00

... Paul Krugman, "for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity".

See the scientific background here. And I quote:

"It was Paul Krugman who most clearly and forcefully articulated the revolutionary nature of this new approach for the theory of international trade. His short paper in the Journal of International Economics, entitled 'Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition and International Trade' (1979a), is twofold. It contains not only a new trade theory that allows us to explain observed patterns of intra-industry trade, but also the seeds of a new economic geography where the location of production factors and economic activity can be stringently analyzed within the framework of a general-equilibrium model. Remarkably, the paper achieves all of this in only ten pages, and in a very simple and transparent fashion." [emphasis mine]

Wow, a Nobel Prize-winning paper in only ten pages. Dang.

Reality TV: Financial Catastrofuck

2008-09-29T19:06:00.000-07:00

The US Congress and Dow Jones don't usually make exciting TV, but last night was different. Watching BBC and CNN at 1:30 to 4:00 in the morning was more nail-biting and nerve-wracking than that overhyped, inconsequential Ateneo-La Salle game. By the time it was over, the Dow Jones lost 778 points, its biggest one-day loss ever. The World Trade Center being demolished by two planes in the middle of Manhattan did not have that much impact on the Dow.

The day started ominously enough with multiple bank failures and bailouts-- in the US, UK, Belgium, Germany, even Iceland-- and that was on top of all the bank failures and bailouts of the past two weeks. Then congressmen started debating whether or not they will approve the $700 billion Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act, which is essentially a transfusion of captial into markets that have stopped running. It was a very unpopular bill as Main Street complained that their tax dollars are being used to help Wall Street fatcats while ordinary taxpayers are left with foreclosures and bankruptcies. But after three days of intense negotiations and with the solid backing of the White House and the leaders of the Democratic and Republican parties, the bill's passage was almost a foregone conclusion.

Then the voting started. The Yeas started with a margin of 30 votes, all the way to 110 Yeas and 80 Nays. Then the margin was whittled down to 25. 20. 15. 10. Then it was dead even with only a few minutes left for voting. Then the Nays were leading and the lead stood. Voting ended with 228 Nays and 205 Yeas. The bill failed.

As voting took place CNN was showing a live feed from Dow Jones showing real-time reaction to the vote. When voting started the Dow was down around 200 points. Then it was down 300. 400. 500. 600. Hala Gorani, the CNN anchor who used to be a finance news reporter, could not believe the numbers she was seeing. By the time the 15-minute voting window ran out the Dow lost 700 points. The index was erratic for the next few hours while the House Democrats and Republicans were blaming each other, but by the end of the trading day the Dow suffered its worst single-day loss ever, worse than 9/11, the DotCom Bust, and the Asian Crisis. And after a few hours, as I write this, the Asian markets are crashing as well; European markets haven't opened yet.

As Jon Stewart would say, this is a financial catastrofuck. On live TV.

Woman on Top: Lisa Randall

2008-09-28T02:54:00.001-07:00

Lisa Randall

Professor of Physics

Department of Physics, Harvard University

Born on 18 June 1962.
Obtained her BA in Physics from Harvard University in June 1983 and immediately proceeded to the PhD programme.
First taught classes at the Harvard University Physics Department as a Teaching Assistant in 1984.
Obtained her PhD in Physics from Harvard University in June 1987, specialising in particle physics.
Named Associate Professor of Physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1995, being the first tenured female theoretical physicist in MIT.
Transferred to Princeton University in 1998 as Professor of Physics, becoming the first tenured woman in the university's Physics Department.
Returned to Harvard University in 2001 as Professor of Physics, making her the first tenured female theoretical phycisist in Harvard.
Received the Premio Caterina Tomassoni e Felice Pietro Chisesi Award from the University of Rome, La Sapienza in 2003.
Published Warped Passages: Unraveling The Mysteries Of The Universe's Hidden Dimensions in 2005, which was cited by the New York Times as one of the 100 most notable books in 2005.
Won the Julius Lilienfeld Prize of the American Physical Society in 2007 for her work in particle physics.
Named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People in 2007.
Her image dispersion has been known to cause the momentary collapse of heartwave functions.

As if we needed any more convincing...

2008-09-12T04:41:00.000-07:00

... that RP media is going to the dogs, we see this article:

Oil price rollbacks ‘big argument’ vs deregulation -- Palace

By Joel Guinto
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 18:26:00 09/12/2008

MANILA, Philippines—The rollback in oil prices by P2 to P3 on Friday is a "big argument" against calls by leftwing militants to deregulate the petroleum industry, Malacañang said Friday.

xxx

This is terribly sloppy-- not only on Mr. Guinto's part but also on the part of his section editor and anyone else who approved this article before publication. Typos and grammatical mistakes are understandable (albeit regrettable for a broadsheet), but this is way beyond that. This article defies logic. In case they haven't noticed, the petroleum industry is already deregulated, that's why oil companies could raise (and lower) prices at will (RA 8479, anyone?). And why would the lowering of prices-- a perceived benefit of deregulation-- be an argument against it? Also, the last thing the Left will call for is the deregulation of anything; in case they haven't heard, the "leftwing militants" are actually calling for the reregulation of the oil industry.

At best this is just sloppy work-- maybe they meant reregulation when they wrote deregulation, or maybe they meant for when they wrote vs-- extremely sloppy that it is incompetent. And this sloppiness is systemic, from the beat writer to the section editor to the copy editor.

At worst they don't know what the hell deregulation means and the issues surrounding it. And they're the ones who are supposed to tell us what the news is.

Woman on Top

2008-08-29T11:39:00.000-07:00

Sarah Louise Palin
Governor of the State of Alaska
United States of America

Born Sarah Louise Heath on 11 February 1964 in Sandpoint, Idaho; moved to Alaska soon after.
Studied high school in Wasilla, Alaska, where she earned the nickname "Sarah Barracuda" for her basketball prowess.
Was crowned Miss Wasilla in 1984 and won second place in the Miss Alaska pageant the same year.
Majored in Journalism and minored in Politics at the University of Idaho.
Married Todd Palin, a commercial fisherman, in 1988; they have five children.
Served on the Wasilla City Council from 1992 to 1996.
Appointed Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2002.
Elected governor of Alaska in 2006; the first woman and, at 42, the youngest person elected to the post.
Selected by John McCain to be the Republican vice-presidential candidate for the 2008 US presidential elections, making her the second woman to be nominated to the position.
Is a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association.

Give them bloody hell

2008-08-22T22:16:00.000-07:00

If war is what the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) want, then I say give it to them. After the MILF ambuscaded and pillaged Lanao del Norte, North Cotabato, and Saranggani, they deserve nothing less than to be bombed to bloody hell. Wake up-- the peace talks were dead the minute MILF troops adopted a scorched earth policy for Christian towns which happened to be in the wrong part of Mindanao.

Here's a brief recap of what happened: The Philippine government and the MILF concluded a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) that would give the Bangsamoro people even greater autonomy than that under the present Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) regime. Shortly after this was announced, Christian politicians in Mindanao and Manila objected to the MOA, eventually getting the Supreme Court to issue a restraining order against the MOA's signing. In response, MILF commanders Bravo and Ombra Kato attacked and occupied several towns in Lanao del Norte, North Cotabato, and Saranggani, looting businesses, burning houses, and killing civilians. The military responded by driving out the MILF in Christian towns and pursuing the commanders. Politicians in Manila and Mindanao are now running round like headless chickens.

When I first heard of the MOA I actually thought it was a good idea. It was about time the Bangsamoro people were given a greater degree of autonomy and were allowed to have a greater say in their own destiny. I agreed with the MOA in principle even if I thought it had legal infirmities and a plebiscite should first be conducted in the concerned areas. Given Manila's piss poor job in governing Muslim Mindanao, it was just understandable that they will want to govern themselves. Constitutional issues aside, giving the Bangsamoro people federal state-like status will solve a lot of problems especially for Manila.

But everything changed when Bravo and Kato launched their raids on civilan towns. Mohagher Iqbal, the MILF's chief negotiator, maintains that the attacks weren't sanctioned by their leadership. If that is so, then MILF should take the lead in rounding up and punishing Bravo and Kato-- that's what happens to military commanders when they engage in unauthorised movements. Instead, the the MILF are coddling these two commanders and haven't even categorically condemned them. And now they're threatening even more violence if the MOA isn't signed.

Iqbal's claim that they didn't authorise Bravo and Kato's ambuscades is nothing but hogwash. The attacks were instigated to silence opposition and to pressure Manila into signing the MOA; claiming "lost command" and adventurous commanders is just meant to avoid responsibility while reaping the benefits. But, for the sake of argument, let's take Iqbal's word at face value-- they really had nothing to do with Bravo and Kato's actions. In that case, why should anyone enter into an agreement with the MILF leadership? They basically just said that they have no command and control over their forces on the ground. What's the use of signing a peace pact with an MILF leadership that cannot control their commanders? We can only conclude two things about the MILF leadership: either (1) they're pigs willing to order (or condone) attacks on civilian towns to pressure the signing of the MOA, or (2) they're lame ducks who cannot control their own commanders and are thus unable to guarantee the peace. Either way, why the hell would anyone still want to sign a peace pact with them?

The MILF say that there will be war if the MOA isn't signed. Well, we're already in a war-- it started when MILF commanders occupied and looted civilian towns. If the MILF want to salvage the MOA, they should show that they do not condone such attacks on civilians and hand over Bravo and Kato to the government. Or, better yet, do what should be done and spare us the paperwork.

Singapore Places and People

2008-08-15T03:59:00.001-07:00

View the pics here.

Notes from Singapore

2008-08-14T07:15:00.000-07:00

1. I have two words to describe Singapore: homogenised and sterilised. The Singapore we know is all about enviously efficient urban planning and housing development buildings (HDBs); unfortunately, it is also about cold social engineering and control. Even the urban artwork has the feel of being State-sanctioned, like a committee decides on what is acceptable at any given moment, down to the something@thisplace label for everything. I finally understand what dr.sbdink has been saying all along, that Singapore has a "Disneyfied" artificial feel to it. I never really got what he was driving at until I saw it myself. It's like using pasteurised milk to make cheese-- it can give you a good variety of taste and texture, but it has that unnatural and flat feel to it.

2. Which brings us to Geylang, the seedy underbelly of Singapore (or at least as seedy as Singapore can get). It is grimy and rowdy, the city-state's designated redlight district. It is the only place in Singapore where I frequently saw flies and cockroaches. It still felt relatively safe walking around Geylang past midnight though, the eminent threat being an overly aggressive "working girl". But of all the places in Singapore I visited, Geylang was the one where it did not feel homogenised and sterilised, the part of the city-state that seems to have been overlooked by the social planners. It has a genuine feel to it, like how Singapore was before HDBs, social engineering, and State-sanctioned cultural events. You feel it in the colourful (almost chaotic) architecture, the non-uniform businesses, and the relaxed pace of the people. Walk past the brothels and bars and you'll see mom-and-pop stores, mosques, and real communities. It's a good contrast to the Disneyfied city centre, where even daily life can feel touristy.

3. As a food heaven, Singapore definitely does not disappoint. I'll have a separate entry for food because it deserves special attention. What did disappoint me is my stomach-- seems it can only take too much chili and spice. My tastebuds are willing but my stomach is weak.

4. The Singapore transit system is the most efficient, convenient, and comfortable I have ever experienced. It was actually a pleasure to use public transportation and was very safe even late at night. It also helps that Singapore is a very walkable city and the streets are clean and dust-free. Goes to show that some things are really meant to be centrally planned.

5. Using my very scientific travel host-based rating scale, I'd say Singapore is mostly touristy along the lines of Sandra Brown and Janet Hsieh. If you're more like the Ian Wright or Anthony Bourdain traveller, then Geylang is definitely worth a visit. Food-wise, Singapore is a veritable destination for Maeve O'Meara and Andrew Zimmern and everyone in between.

Singapore, T minus 2 hours

2008-08-12T13:28:00.000-07:00

I'm posting this at one of those free internet access places in Terminal 1 of Changi Airport. It says I only have 8+ mins remaining.

Had a great time in Singapore the past few days, even though it seems my stomach has had enough of chili and spice. Many many thanks to my official host and tour guide, dr.sbdink. Yes, Mabel, I've left Singapore. I had a real sulit time-- lots of wonderful sights, delicious dishes, great food. Always a delight seeing my old friends Mico ("I hated it; you'll love it!"), Ana (formerly known as Carmen), and Ina (who avoided any marriage-related questions). And by old I mean we've known each other for some time, not that other meaning.

Til next time.

Singapore, Day 4

2008-08-10T21:52:00.000-07:00

Been in Singapore a few days now. My daily activities have mostly been: eat, walk around, eat, take the MRT, eat, walk around, eat, walk around, eat, take the bus, eat, walk around, eat.... I think I walk around 10 kilometres in a day, which is good to keep my net calorie intake to an acceptable level.

Singapore must be the safest city in the world; definitely the safest city I've visited. It also has a very efficient mass transit system, not to mention spotlessly clean. Singapore's MRT puts to shame London's Tube and San Francisco's BART.

I'm gonna be in Singapore for a couple more days. Now back to more eating and walking around.

Don't bring your laptops to the US

2008-08-05T10:52:00.000-07:00

Or any electronic storage device, for that matter. Read the whole story here (c/o the Daily Mail). Chek out the lead of the story:

Travellers to the U.S. could have their laptops and other electronic devices seized at the airport under new anti-terror measures.

Federal agents have been granted powers to take such devices and hold them as long as they like.

They do not even need grounds to suspect wrongdoing.

Now, I understand the need to secure the borders and ensure the safety of the public, but this is just crazy. It's one thing to check your bags for explosives or contraband, but to rummage through your email and personal files? Without even having to show probable cause? By comparing a laptop to a suitcase, they are practically saying that certain thoughts, ideas, and knowledge are considered contraband and, thus, actionable.

Guantanamo. Waterboarding. Extraordinary rendition. Warrantless electronic surveillance. Now this. After one terrorist attack these Americans are so ready to give up their rights and forget everything their founding fathers stood for. Not even Israel at the height of the Palestinian intifada, or Britain at the height of the IRA threat, or Spain at the height of the Basque separatist movement, resorted to such draconian measures.

I was in America when 9/11 happened, and I do understand where they are coming from. But this is just wrong. Very wrong.

As Benjamin Franklin so famously wrote, "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."

Repeal VAT now!!!

2008-07-30T09:19:00.000-07:00

Seems there is a serious battle over VAT these days. Even our bishops have joined the fray-- these days they seem to know what's best not only regarding reproductive health but also for the economy. That fuchsia cap must really have some power, being able to transform DDs into MDs and PhDs. But I digress.

Economically, removing VAT is like getting genital warts after a one-night stand: a quick relief you'll end up paying for for a very long time. So maybe we'll save P6/litre on gasoline overnight. Then Israel attacks Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is mined. Then Nigerian pipelines are blown up. Then another Katrina hits the Gulf of Mexico. Then China and India grow another 10%. And we're back to where we began, but this time with less revenues, a limping financial market, and a noncredible fiscal environment. Actually, those who stand to gain the most from this measure would be the dollar earners (i.e., exporters, expats, consultants, and OFWs) and those with substantial non-peso assets (i.e., those who diversified their portfolio away from the peso, probably expecting stupid shit to happen in this country again). So go ahead, make some people richer.

Strategically, though, calling for VAT's removal is brilliant. It's grandmaster-level chess. In game theoretic language, it strictly dominates alternative strategies. People like Roxas and Escudero must be thanking the high heavens that they have been given the opportunity to try this move. If they don't succeed, they'll still come out as pro-poor, compassionate, and, therefore, popular. If they do succeed and everything turns out rosy, they can claim all of the credit. If they do succeed and the economy goes to the dogs, they can always blame the President. You just can't lose with this move.

It's great to be a senator. All this power but responsible for next to nothing. Think about it-- they have no real constituency so they can't be blamed for anything, but they have national coverage so they can claim credit for everything they lay their hands on. Must be the best job out there. But I digress.

Therefore, since I don't want to lose, I say repeal VAT now! Then vote for me for senator. And do more one-night stands, but don't use condoms because they're evil as the bishops say. Yeah, a prescription for success.

Manila, T minus 9 days

2008-07-29T09:16:00.000-07:00

I'm going to Singapore next week to attend the National Day Parade, which commemorates the city-state's separation from Malaysia on 9 August 1965. There is nothing better than to stand proud with other Singaporeans on this auspicious day, singing Majulah Singapura and giving my thanks to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's effective leadership.

It just so happens that Singapore is where my very good friends dr.sbdink and mixmendoza are currently staying, as well as a few other high school friends who I've barely seen since graduation. It just so happens that Singapore is the epicentre of Nyonya cuisine and a gourmet's heaven for Chinese, Indian, and Malay cuisines. It just so happens that Singapore is the home (conceptual or corporate) of some of my favourite food franchises: Kopi Roti (which is an all-Filipino company), Bread Talk, Roti Mum, and Old Chang Kee (and its illegitimate Filipino child, Old Yang Kee). And it just so happens that Singapore is where I'll be spending my birthday this year.

But, really, it's National Day all the way.

Boom De Ah Dah!

2008-07-19T05:29:00.000-07:00

I Love the Whole World...

... and its longer, live version too...

... boom de ah dah, boom de ah dah!

Sex, Schism, and Excommunication

2008-07-14T04:57:00.000-07:00

Seems religions are exceptionally prominent in the news these days. The Pope in Australia, the Anglican Church in the brink of a schism, Islamophobia in America and Europe.

Today was expecially abuzz with these news. Here are three articles on sex, schism and excommunication that range from the disturbing to the absurd:

Abortion: don't even think about it.

Gay bishop: to beat it or not to beat it?

Outside the white shirt and black necktie there is no salvation.

Frat Violence... Again

2008-06-29T03:42:00.000-07:00

Seems frat violence reared its ugly head-- again-- at UP, this time along AS Walk on a Tuesday morning. I don't really care if these frat guys kill each other, so long as they don't hurt (or even inconvenience) non-participants when they do so. It would really be better for everyone if they just do their mutual killing away from school grounds (and away from any kind of civilisation, for that matter).

That said, I have to say I'm getting sick and tired of the predictable statements and rallies of outrage coming from UP student leaders, the latest from the ironically-named UP-SAWA. Really, is that the best the UP community can do? Make statements or hold rallies?

The law and the SDT have their hands tied when it comes to punishing these people-- the Mendez and Dungo cases are testaments to that. Add to that the fact that these frat guys usually have rich and powerful brods, who ensure they have only the best lawyers defending them. Waiting for the law and the SDT to punish these people is like waiting for pigs to evolve wings.

So if they cannot be punished legally, why not punish them socially? Ostracise them. Make them pariahs. Turn them into untouchables. If a frat is invioled in a rumble, kick out all their members from organisations, committes, and councils. Bar their members from attending any university or college activity. Extricate them from university life. Tell them that their brod's actions-- and their defence or tolerance of them-- are unacceptable. Tell them that there will be no forgiveness or reconciliation until they hang their erring brods out to dry, or they resign from their frat (which some brave men did after the Mendez case).

UP-SAWA's statement calls on everyone to "to take small but significant steps within their personal circles to continuously and emphatically condemn any and all forms of fraternity-related violence". Are they now ready to sever their academic and personal ties from members of the frats they so "continuously and emphatically condemn"? Are they ready to put their money where their statement is?

All for one and one for all implies the acceptance of collective punishment, so give it to them. Since the law doesn't seem to be any disincentive against frat violence, maybe social ostracisation will send the message home. Kung wala silang hiya, hiyain nalang sila.

Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero.

2008-06-27T12:23:00.000-07:00

Q. HORATI FLACCI CARMINVM LIBER PRIMVS

XI

Tu ne quaesieris (scire nefas) quem mihi, quem tibi
finem di dederint, Leuconoe, nec Babylonios
temptaris numeros. Vt melius quicquid erit pati!
Seu pluris hiemes seu tribuit Iuppiter ultimam,
quae nunc oppositis debilitat pumicibus mare
Tyrrhenum, sapias, uina liques et spatio breui
spem longam reseces. Dum loquimur, fugerit inuida
aetas: carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero.

---
English translation here.

My ref magnets...

2008-06-25T10:35:00.001-07:00

...make me happy. They remind me of where I've been, what I've experienced, who I've met.

Ref magnets are my souvenir of choice; unfortunately, my collection is way incomplete. But I do have a few magnets from places I haven't been to yet-- those on the lower left-- given to me by family and friends. Any addition is more than welcome. :)

I hope to someday ride the Mongol steppes, eat paella in Valencia, get my feet wet in Lake Victoria. I like to experience the everyday side of the places I visit-- not the Disneyfied touristy stuff-- and local food, of course, is a destination in its own right. In Discovery Channel terms, Sandra Brown is too touristy while Bear Grylls is too tough. The set bounded by Ian Wright and Andrew Zimmern is just right for me, with Anthony Bourdain being my optimal travel style. Oh to have a job like Tony's.

Speaking of travel shows, that show hosted by Tim Tayag over at Living Asia Channel just irritates me. Ok he's a comedian and he has this humour style, but that doesn't mean the show has to be so inane. I recall an episode featuring MRT stations-- Tim was interviewing DOTC Sec. Leandro Mendoza, asking him these nonsensical questions. I swear, the ex-PNP Chief had this look that said, "If only I could shoot him now." They already spent a lot to get the host, producers, crew, etc. to those various places; why not put in the effort for better scripts and segments? Really, the show is like a very bad hangover. With traveller's diarrhoea and lost luggage.

Yeah, I'm envious. Very envious. I should be paid to travel. A lot. To places with weird-sounding names. The more alien the better. Then I go home and stick another magnet to my ref.

Acta de la proclamacion de independencia del pueblo Filipino

2008-06-12T04:01:00.000-07:00

Today is Independence Day. Today should be the holiday for our country instead of the sectarian holidays we religiously observe; instead, it's a regular working day, the holiday moved to last Monday for the sake of holiday economics.

Practically every American child has seen a copy of the US Declaration of Independence, usually framed prominently in their school or public library. Rare is the Filipino adult who has seen, much less read, the Philippine Declaration of Independence. I, for one, was 19 when I first saw a facsimile of the Declaration.

So, in honour of Independence Day, here it is.

Downloaded from here. Read the English translation here.

Crime and the withdrawal of human rights

2008-05-16T08:16:00.000-07:00

By now you've probably heard about the horrendous crime that happened in Laguna. We hear about violent crime everyday and mostly we are desensitised to them, taking refuge in abstraction, anonymity, and distance. But the events in Laguna really jar the psyche-- the magnitude of violence, the cold calculation of the murderers, the everydayness of the victims.

My condolences to the families of the victims-- their cries for vengeance are understandable and, I say, justified. As for the perpetrators, they should be punished in the most painful and protracted way possible.

That said, let me discuss human rights, which I'm sure the perpetrators will seek refuge in if they are caught and found guilty. Of course the accused, who are presumed innocent, should be accorded due process and all the protection under the law. But what do we do with those who are guilty of the most violent and heinous of crimes? What basis is there to say that the death penalty should be off the table? Generally, what rights of criminals, who despite their actions remain biologically human, may or may not be withdrawn?

Human rights are the set of rights and freedoms that everyone is endowed with by virtue of being born human. No one is born without human rights, and no action is required to acquire these rights. Everyone is entitled to the protection of their human rights, and no one may deny others these rights. However, one can do actions (i.e., criminal activity) that result in the State's (as the representative of society) legitimate and just withdrawal of some of these rights. For example, Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) declares that "everyone has the right to freedom of movement". But incarceration-- a withdrawal of this right-- is a universally accepted penalty for criminal activity. So if Article 13 of the UDHR can be withdrawn as a consequence of certain crimes, why not, say, Article 3 (right to life) or Article 5 (protection from torture or cruel punishment)?

One argument is that some human rights are inalienable (e.g., right to life) and others are not (e.g., right to free movement). Alston (2005), who famously visited our country last year, puts it softer as the prioritisation of human rights, that some rights are more important than others and should thus be pursued more rigourously. Accepting that such a dichotomy of human rights exists, how do we detrmine which ones are inalienable (or more important) and thus cannot be withdrawn as a consequence of criminal activity?

Answers based on the Divine, religion, or some "self-evident" truths are flimsy because they cease to persuade once the underlying assertions and dogmas are disputed-- they are only persuasive for the converted. Natural law, social contract, Kantian morality, and evolutionary game theoretic arguments provide sound bases for the universal existence and protection of human rights, but give no objective limits on the punishment for those who violate them.

The strongest argument against the withdrawal of some human rights is the imperfection of the judicial system-- errors can occur and the innocent may be convicted. In this case, certain rights should not be withdrawn if there is a nonzero probability that the convict is actually innocent, especially if the withdrawal of such rights cannot be reversed. Indeed, it is better to err on the side of protecting human rights than withdrawing them. [I use a similar line of argument in my stand on abortion.] However, this is a practical argument that has no bearing on the merits of what punishments should or should not be allowed. After all, this argument falters if there is absolute certainty that the convicted criminal is guilty (say, there is untampered video of him shooting the victims).

The way I see it, the set of human rights that can be withdrawn as a consequence of criminal activity is a matter of social choice. There is no objective reason why some punishments should be allowed and others should be prohibited-- it all depends on the preferences of society. Thus, if society decides that violent criminals like the Laguna robbers should receive capital punishment (i.e., their right to life should be withdrawn), there is no objective reason to say that this should not be done; the only real constraint is society's sensibilities and public opinion.

Violent crimes like the Laguna robberies strain the rationale behind the limits on their punishment. If we subscribe to the social contract theory of human rights, a criminal should be deemed to have surrendered all his human rights if he decides to use violence on his victim. Perpetrators of heinous and violent crimes, if we are absolutely certain of their guilt, should be punished harshly, severely, and mercilessly.

If you disagree with me, do leave a reply and set me right.

An Old Notebook

2008-04-19T09:16:00.000-07:00

Much of recorded history is culled from mundane items that were somehow preserved-- an accounting record, a sales contract, a prescription. Same is true for our personal histories. I was rummaging through my car looking for a rag when I stumbled upon an old notebook, stuck in the recesses of the boot. Based on the stuff I wrote there, I used it between 2002 and 2004-- a period that saw huge personal changes and a period that is also very different from my current circumstances. Interesting to look back and see what changed, and what remained the same.

The notebook is a 152mm x216mm, 50-leaf Blue Feather notebook, the standard notebook issued by one of my former employers. Among the contents:

Notes on how to interpret crosstabs. These were the days when the simple two-way table was a technical challenge and error margins were a total mystery. Back then, logit, probit, and tobit were as good as forgetit.

Floor plan of my condo. I drew this a few weeks before moving in, pen and tape measure in hand. I eventually made a better sketch with straight lines and correct proportions (1 inch : 1 metre), allowing me to know which piece of furniture fits where. Been here five years now.

Advice on toning down my language. I sometimes still get this advice, actually. It's good when writing a press release, but not good when writing a report, especially for a politician. No one wants to be told to his face that he has no chance of winning a Senate seat, even if that's exactly what the data say (and what eventually happened).

Model of optimal research effort. Really poor attempt at modelling now that I'm looking at it. I wrote this just before I began graduate school in 2003, probably convincing myself that I was ready for it. I wasn't. But somehow I survived.

Outline of an employee manual. I was supposed to help my admin boss draft a revised manual for our employer. Got repeatedly bumped off of the agenda and we never got down to writing it. I resigned in mid-2004.

Crappy poetry. One of the few times I wrote poetry using a pen, since I preferred to use my typewriter when I wrote anything literary, the noise and vibrations offering some kind of a conversation. I haven't written anything remotely literary lately, Stata and MathType being more frequent companions than my old typewriter. Sigh.

Snack list. Salmon sashimi and fruit salad, which I still like today.

Game theoretic trade model. This is the last thing I wrote in the notebook. I was already more than a year into grad school by then, and I used this model as a basis for three class papers. A long way from those crosstab days.

Now to look for an even older notebook.

On Atty. Punzi's Reflections on the 2007 Bar Exams

2008-04-03T00:41:00.000-07:00

Atty. Punzi got one thing right-- his reflections on the 2007 Bar Exams did stir a hornet's nest, especially among those who passed the 2007 Bar Exams. He eventually pulled down his post (without retracting his statements, mind you), but thanks to Google's cache you can read it here. Basically, he is complaining about the Supreme Court's decision to lower the passing grade from 75% to 70%, saying the standards were set too low and that this move tarnished the Bar Exams. "And lowering the passing grade is too much of a compromise and would not fair to those who took previous bar exams and got 74.9% to 70%," he adds.

Atty. Punzi's argument suffers a fatal flaw: he implicitly assumes that the information contained in the 75% passing grade is comparable across years, as if the Bar Exam questions given in one year are comparable in difficulty with those of another. They aren't. The Bar Exams are not like the Medical Boards or the US Bar Exams where there is a bank of objective questions and examinees' answers are checked by computers. The Bar Exams are all essay questions, checked by examiners who have to wade through 5,000+ booklets in varying states of mood and comfort.

Given the highly subjective nature of the Bar Exams-- from the questions all the way to the checking-- the insistence on keeping 75% as an objective gauge of competence just does not make sense. This is like insisting that all runners finish 400 metres in one minute or less regardless of terrain (uphill, downhill, level). One cannot insist on keeping the bar of competence constant when the terrain keeps on changing year after year. One cannot treat Bar Exam results as an objective test of competence when the yardstick is so subjective. Simply put, someone getting 75% in 2006 cannot be judged to be smarter or more competent than someone getting 70% in 2007 because their exams are in no way comparable.

So, from a purely academic and exam design perspective, the Supreme Court had all the right reasons to adjust the passing grade, basically correcting the grade for changes in the terrain (i.e., "unusually difficult" exams, key word being unusual). I think this is why no one is beating the drums against the Court's decision-- most people understand the reasons for it.

Whether 70% is too high or too low is a matter of opinion, just like all other Supreme Court decisions, but is nevertheless binding and valid. Speculating on the reasons they did it is pure folly since these can never be substantiated. It is useless to say that the same rule should be applied retroactively since no two Bar Exams are comparable. In the end, the true test is the job market's response. So far, my new laywer friends have not been having any trouble getting jobs or promotions; in fact, offers have been pouring left and right.

---

Let's keep comments objective and academic. As Atty. Punzi would surely agree, ad hominem arguments serve no purpose in these discussions.

Stupid Smart (BRO)

2008-04-02T07:43:00.000-07:00

Goddammit! I'm sick and tired of this terrible service from Smart BRO (the broadband service of Smart Communications, Inc.). My connection speed right now is an excruciatingly slow 23.2 kbps. I checked my speed ten times tonight-- all of them register less than 50 kbps (dial-up gives me 56 kbps). WHAT THE FUCK?!?

I subscribed to Smart BRO last October, availing myself of Plan 999 where I pay P999/month for broadband service. They say they offer speeds up to 384 kbps, but ever since I signed up I never got any speed faster than 300 kbps. On a good day (which is rare) I can get 250 kbps, but my usual speed would be around 90 to 150 kbps. I've considerably lowered my standards for bandwidth speed, grudgingly being satisfied with acceptable speed instead of fast speed (my broadband speed in San Francisco is 1 Mbps, btw). And by acceptable I mean I can surf the web with relative ease; I still have to wait for YouTube vids to completely load before I watch them. But starting this year the service really deteriorated WAY below decent, starting in January. In February and March it went back to semi-acceptable speed, but today it's the worst.

Now, I've called Smart BRO multiple times to complain about my insanely slow bandwidth speed-- so many times that I already know what the customer service rep will tell me from their list of prefabricated responses, always going through the motions of checking my connection to the base station for whatever problem I tell them. They are trained to "understand" customers' complaints and to give an apology, with all calls eventually ending in a referral to their technical department. Twice they even sent technicians here to check my connection to the base station, BUT THE PROBLEM ISN'T MY CONNECTION BUT MY SPEED!!! I connect to the base station just fine, IT'S YOUR SERVICE THAT IS SO FUCKING SLOW.

And what really irritates me is that it's company policy NOT to let customers talk to the managers (or whoever is responsible for this crap). I've asked for the contact info of Smart BRO managers many times, but they say they can't give it to me. So I'm left with pouring my frustrations at powerless customer service reps who really can't do anything about my problem, while the managers and bosses have no accountability. These Smart BRO managers and bosses choose to be holed up in their offices, oblivious to the fact that THEY ARE FUCKING UP AT THEIR JOBS. If I'm Manny V. Pangilinan, I'll subscribe to Plan 999 to experience Smart BRO's service first hand, then I'll FIRE ALL THEIR ASSES.

I'm really frustrated at Smart BRO's terrible service. I've called them so many times and nothing has improved. The customer service reps try to be helpful, but there really isn't much they can do. I think Smart BRO just got so many customers that they can't serve then properly-- the old congestion problems. But that isn't any excuse for terrible service. Smart BRO's service has really been a terrible dissapointment for me. I have never been satisfied with their service, and after I lower my standards they actually do even worse. Smart BRO is a sorry excuse for an ISP.

When people sign up with Smart BRO, the contract stipulates that the subscription period is for a minimum of one year. If I can get out of this contract without having to go through a lawsuit, I will.

If you've also suffered from Smart BRO's excruciating service, please do leave a comment. If you work with Smart BRO (and want to defend the firm), you're also welcome to leave a comment.

If you're thinking of subscribing to Smart BRO, don't. For the love of God, don't.

Congratulations, Dear!!!

2008-03-29T01:18:00.000-07:00

Congratulations, Dear! I'm so proud of you. I knew you'd make it.

Congratulations, too, to everyone else who passed the 2007 Bar Exams. Celebrate, take your oath, and give lawyers a good name.

Woman on Top (part 2)

2008-03-19T00:48:00.000-07:00

Dana Perino has been featured on this blog previously (4 September 2007, to be exact), under the Woman on Top heading. She is the current White House Press Secretary, whose job description includes obfuscating and spinning her way in defending the Bush administration. She might tell you that Iraq is a sunny summer afternoon, but, with a smile like that, how can you stay angry at her?

Here she is on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart:

At least the Bush administration got one thing right-- if you have nothing but bad news, at least send a cute messenger. Hmmm, now who should we get to replace Ignacio Bunye?

It's official: poverty has worsened despite economic growth

2008-03-04T23:49:00.000-08:00

The rumours have been flying in the economics circles for quite a while, but now it's official-- poverty has worsened between 2003 and 2006 despite "robust" economic growth. The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) just released the results yesterday (read it here) with very little fanfare and very sparse analytical text (probably to discourage the more numerophobic reporters).

This finding is based on the 2006 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES, n = 38,483 households), which is conducted every three years. First, let us define "poor". A family (NSCB's preferred term for household) is considered "poor" in 2006 if it had an annual per capita income of P15,057, or each member was living on P1,254.75/month. For a family of five, this would translate to a monthly income of P6,273.75. In 2003, the poverty threshold was P12,309 per capita, or P1,025.75/month for each family member, or a monthly income of P5,128.75 for a family of five (the difference in thresholds is due to inflation).

The 2006 FIES finds that:

26.9% of families were poor in 2006, up from 24.4% in 2003
32.9% of Filipinos were poor in 2006, up from 30.0% in 2003
the number of poor families increased by 700,000 from 4.0 million in 2003 to 4.7 million in 2006
the number of poor Filipinos increased by 3.8 million from 23.8 million in 2003 to 27.6 million in 2006

Now consider the following economic "achievements":

real GDP growth was recorded at 4.9% in 2003, 6.4% in 2004, 4.8% in 2005, and 5.4% in 2006
real GDP grew from P1.154 trillion in 2004 to P1.276 trillion in 2006, or a three-year growth rate of 10.6%

Therefore, during a three-year period that saw a 10.6% economic expansion, the number of poor Filipinos increased by 16.0%. Assuming a 2.36% annual population growth, the population would have grown 7.25% during the three-year period. So, crudely speaking, 7.25% of the 16.0% increase in poverty incidence can be explained by population growth, but 8.75% of it cannot (not-crude analysis to follow, hopefully). In other words, of the 3.8 million Filipinos added to the poverty headcount in 2006, roughly 1.7 million were the offspring of families that were already poor in 2003 and 2.1 million were from families that were not poor in 2003.

The recent "robust" economic growth, we can see, was not beneficial to the poor and, in many instances, detrimental to the borderline poor. Although the Philippine economic pie was enlarged, not a crumb of it went to the poor, instead benefitting... who knows. Worse, not only was there no trickle-down effect from "robust" economic activity, there might actually have been a trickle-up effect that extracted from the poor and borderline poor.

In other words, we have ourselves a pretty fucked-up situation.

EDSA, This Noble Fight

2008-03-03T22:35:00.000-08:00

Arise, you citizens from your slumber!
Arise, you victims of plunder!
For the rot of corruption has reached the core
And immoderate is the greed of the whore.
For we have had enough of this pretender
For we have had too much of this impostor.

So comrades, with us come rally!
And this noble fight let us face
On EDSA be part of the tally
Our fists and arms let us brace!

Arise, you citizens from your slumber!
Arise, you victims of plunder!
The time is now to finish corruption's dread
Let us start by cutting off the serpent's head.
The time is now to wage battle in the streets
And kick the serpent's minions from their seats.

So comrades, with us come rally!
And this noble fight let us face
On EDSA be part of the tally
Our fists and arms let us brace!

Arise, you citizens from your slumber!
Arise, you victims of plunder!
Cower not in your offices and farms
Believe not her lies, bribes, and charms.
Betray not the cause of our motherland
Against this government take a strong stand.

So comrades, with us come rally!
And this noble fight let us face
On EDSA be part of the tally
Our fists and arms let us brace!

Arise, you citizens from your slumber!
Arise, you victims of plunder!
Let our groups' loud collective will prevail
Let our liberation be the fruit of our travail.
Let us, on EDSA, dictate the nation's fate
To us the country's gratitude will be great.

So comrades, with us come rally!
And this noble fight let us face
On EDSA be part of the tally
Our fists and arms let us brace!

---

* Adapted from The Internationale.

Four Years

2008-02-29T00:43:00.000-08:00

Happy Anniversary, Dear!

Looking forward to celebrating more leap years with you.

사랑해

Pictures

2008-02-24T07:57:00.000-08:00

Finally got around to posting some of my travel pictures. You can find them on my multiply site here. So far I have three albums, 64 pictures total.

The End of an Era

2008-02-19T16:15:00.000-08:00

Just learned from BBC that Cuban President Fidel Castro will be retiring. As of this posting, the news is not yet reflected in the website of Granma, Cuba's official paper, but I suppose it will be posted soon.

Castro came to power in 1959 after throwing out the corrupt but US-backed Battista government. Dwight Eisenhower was the US president when he came to power; nine US presidents later, Castro is stepping down from office.

This marks the end of the old Cold War, of red banners and songs of struggle. [In case you're wondering, yes, I consider Joma's CPP-NPA-NDF a relic of the past that has long outlived its relevance.] Despite disagreements with many of the things he stood for, I salute Castro as a revolutionary who never faded. Viva La Revolucion!

Farewell, Brother Felix

2008-02-05T21:53:00.000-08:00

Brother Felix Masson, FSC, passed away today, 5 February 2008, at around 3pm in Napa, California (7am on 6 February, Manila time). He was 89.

Brother Felix was a much-loved figure in De La Salle-Zobel, where I spent my grade school and high school years. We best knew him for greeting each one of us on our birthday, giving us a stampita as a birthday gift. Each student. Every year. Without fail. Being called to his office was always a welcome distraction from the humdrum classroom, not to mention everyone knows it's your birthday when you get that call, prompting the whole class to sing "Happy Birthday" as you walk out the door.

And we did not get a routine greeting from Brother Felix-- he really tried to connect with us. I remember when I got my birthday call when I was in 4th grade-- I was a new student in Zobel then. He asked me about my sports and hobbies and, unable to think of anything, I mentioned tennis. He said stuff about the grassy courts of Wimbledon, to which I replied with a blank stare. On my next birthday, in 5th grade, he asked me if I still liked tennis. Funny how forgotten memories can suddenly make a comeback.

Farewell, Brother Felix, and thank you. You will be missed.

Philippines, 1899; Iraq, 2003

2008-02-04T13:27:00.000-08:00

One hundred and nine years ago today, on 4 February 1899, Pvt. Robert Grayson of the First Nebraska Volunteers shot a Filipino soldier, whose name has been lost to history, and started the Philippine-American War. Not an insurrection, not an uprising, but a war. A war between a newly industrialised United States, fresh from its defeat of the former superpower that was Spain, and a newly sovereign Philippines, barely seven months after it declared its independence.

A war where America's preferred method of torture-- waterboarding-- was first tried and perfected. A war where America's miltary losses-- in Balangiga and Bud Dajo-- were avenged with the blood of civilians. A war where at least 600,000 Filipinos, mostly civilians, lay dead.

A war which was the fruition of an American president's desire-- his Manifest Destiny-- to spread democracy by the barrel of a gun. A war which America has chosen to forget. A war which America is doing all over again.

Remembering Burma

2008-01-23T22:51:00.000-08:00

Gunpowder and teargas, saffron and blood.

Despite the crackdown, brave souls are continuing the fight, albeit covertly. Here's one through a Valentine's Day acrostic.

Political Involvement

2008-01-20T19:11:00.000-08:00

Today is the eighth anniversary of the EDSA II popular revolt. I won't detail what happened during those heady days of 2001, but if you need some background you can find it here.

Much has been said about the lack of commemoration of EDSA II, especially since the winners opted to shun the event. Amando Doronilla calls it the "unwanted child of RP history", apparently abandoned by all its progenitors. But whatever is said about the merits of not commemorating the event, the fact remains that many people still remember those days and a lot is still being written about it, in effect commemorating-- i.e., remembering-- it. One of those pieces is the Inquirer's editorial for today. Take the following lines on the inability to muster crowds in the aftermath of the 2005 Hello Garci controversy:

"The reason many people, particularly the youth, have given to justify their failure to act, politically, over the last few years, can be reduced to the singsong phrase, 'same same.' This is a great evil of our times, this 'pare-pareho lang sila' mentality, which justifies tolerating the status quo on the defeatist assumption that all leaders are the same."

It goes on to say:

"... the youth’s turning away from active involvement in the political sphere, even if understandable, isn’t excusable. A society that rationalizes its refusal to exact accountability from its leaders is a society conspiring to excuse itself from the basic responsibilities of citizenship."

Active involvement in the political sphere is not equal to going to the streets in an attempt to extraconstitutionally oust a president. For all the reasons given for not going to the streets every time there is a crisis, I hope it is for this reason-- we have learned that doing another EDSA is a bad thing. If you think about it, EDSA is anathema to the concept of democracy. EDSA is the rule of the people who went to EDSA-- one cannot assume that non-participation in EDSA is tantamout to abdication. More people did not participate in EDSA-- which is a valid political position-- yet the participants' preferences won the day. What's so democratic about that? Are we to say that the people who marched in EDSA are smarter or more patriotic than those who didn't and therefore their wishes should prevail?

On hindsight, I think it was good that EDSA II happened and things turned out the way they did. If GMA turned out to be a good president, we would just have EDSA after EDSA after EDSA whenever there's a crisis. EDSA should be treated like major surgery-- something to be done only under dire circumstances, not every time we feel an itch. It's about time we learned democracy the hard way. Real political involvement is being a good citizen, studying the issues, and making a wise vote. It's not joining political lynch mobs, peaceful or otherwise.

***

Still on political involvement, word is out that the Vatican ordered Cardinal Sin to stand down and not take any partisan action during EDSA II. This explains the sudden withdrawal of the Church from political activity after EDSA II, especially after Cardinal Sin's death. Political rallies are now largely prohibited on the EDSA Shrine, and even at the height of the Hello Garci scandal the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines did not issue any partisan statement even if a few of its members already did so.

Our bishops should re-read Gaudium et Spes, particularly par. 76, which begins with:

"76. It is very important, especially where a pluralistic society prevails, that there be a correct notion of the relationship between the political community and the Church, and a clear distinction between the tasks which Christians undertake, individually or as a group, on their own responsibility as citizens guided by the dictates of a Christian conscience, and the activities which, in union with their pastors, they carry out in the name of the Church.

"The Church, by reason of her role and competence, is not identified in any way with the political community nor bound to any political system. She is at once a sign and a safeguard of the transcendent character of the human person."

It is when the Church, or religion in general, gets mixed up with politics that we get the worst results. That's when we get the Crusades, the Inquisition, the Taliban, and George W. Bush.

Auschwitz... Dachau... Mauthausen... Taguig

2008-01-15T21:58:00.000-08:00

Seems like the fallout after the idiotic siege of Manila Pen just keeps on coming:

Textbook Godwin's Law. Genius linking "final option" with "final solution", but why stop there? There's final exams, Final Fantasy, the World Cup Finals... the list goes on, you know.

I didn't post about the whole media thing after that idiotic siege, but I did make a comment about it in my Dear's blog. For the record, here's what I said about the whole thing:

I listened to the whole event on radio, and I don't think the police "arrested" media people because they were covering the event. The fog of war (ok, fog of idiotic coup) was present at the time, and I can't blame the police for picking up everyone in the same room as Trillanes and his cabal. The media people claim that they were well aware of the risks involved in staying-- well, being mixed up with the coup plotters is one of those risks. Trillanes used the media people as human shields, and the media people were more than happy to oblige. Well, willing human shields should not complain when they're caught in the crossfire.

The media freedom card should not be used wantonly. Media people should know the difference between an attack on press freedom and an attack on their personal convenience.

And by fallout I mean the pieces that fall after idiots smear their shit on the walls.

Stuff, Religious Stuff

2007-12-28T16:13:00.000-08:00

Stuff I found over at BBC:

God-u Akbar: Malaysian row over word for 'God'

Fighting monks: Unholy dust-up at Nativity church

***

Pretty scary what's happening in Pakistan these days.

Merry Christmas to All

2007-12-24T11:22:00.001-08:00

No, Santa isn't Coca Cola's evil invention.

***

Only in America is it an issue whether to use Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays/Season's Greetings. And a contentious issue at that. Some people seem to have this idea that saying Merry Christmas to a non-Christian is offensive or tantamount to proselytising. It's a a non-issue, really-- Kuala Lumpur in December is awash with Merry Christmas signs after the Hari Raya Adilfitri signs come down. My Central Asian colleagues (mostly Muslim, and one Jew) greet me Merry Christmas, and I greet them back with Merry Christmas which they graciously accept.

So the next time someone feels offended at being greeted Merry Christmas on the 25th of December, tell him to go back to work and return all his presents. But do it nicely-- it's Christmas, after all.

God Hates the World (the video)

2007-12-20T12:33:00.000-08:00

My friend dr.sbdink alerted me to this vid. I heard about this on the news some time back, but I saw the vid just now. If I didn't know better, I'd say this was some sick joke. Watch it and see for yourself.

http://view.break.com/278059 - Watch more free videos

Manila, T minus 2 hours

2007-12-17T09:10:00.000-08:00

At the CX lounge now, at the beginning of my annual vacation in the Bay Area to visit my folks. I'm taking CX this time instead of the usual NW, even if the latter is cheaper by around a hundred dollars (which isn't much these days, really). CX has much better service and food, and seemingly a non-politically correct employment policy, if you know what i mean. Also, I get to relax at the business class lounge even if I'm actually flying coach, thanks to my miles courtesy of Central Asia.

I'll miss you terribly, Dear. Take care always, ok? Hopefully next year we'll be taking this flight together.

Advice for Your Excellencies

2007-12-08T09:12:00.000-08:00

Just read this story over at Inquirer: Bishop opposes QC birth control ordinance. Now, Bishop Ongtioco isn't the first bishop to oppose such measures, and I'm pretty sure he won't be the last. So to help the Magisterium engage the "anti-life" propagandists over at City Hall and various reproductive health centres, let me offer Their Excellencies some pieces of advice:

1. Stop confusing the laity by abortion-baiting (i.e., lumping contraception and abortion in the hope of transferring the distaste for the latter towards the former). There is a clear line between contraception and abortion-- even abortifacient drugs don't blur this line-- and you know this. Abortion-baiting is dishonest and condescending, something I'm sure Your Excellencies don't want to be.

2. Avoid making medical claims because, however we look at it, DD does not equal MD. Also, if Your Excellencies will point out that some contraceptives can raise the risk of certain cancers, you will be hard pressed to explain away the fact that contraceptives can reduce the risk of some cancers, and sex without contraceptives raises the risk of other cancers.

3. Emulate the great apologists like Justin Martyr and Irenaeus of Lyons by avoiding name-calling and sloganeering. Do you think the Athenians would have listened to St. Justin if he called them "boy-lovers", Your Excellencies?

4. Do not use "freedom of conscience" in your argument if you are trying to stop the dissemination of certain, even destructive, information. Free will can only be directed towards God if the conscience is given complete information, Your Excellencies. How holy is choosing the strait and narrow if the wide and broad was never shown?

5. Drop the argument that a teacher should be allowed to choose what she teaches based on her conscience-- this is a very treacherous slope. What applies to the Catholic teacher will also apply to the Jehovah's Witness teacher and the Iglesia ni Cristo teacher. Think about it, Your Excellencies.

6. Do not oppose humane, non-judgemental counselling and health care for anyone, even those you consider automatically excommunicated. Being humane and non-judgemental are good things, Your Excellencies.

7. Stop telling the laity how to have sex, Your Excellencies. Celibate men do not exactly make the best sex therapists, just like Stephen Hawking doesn't make the best track coach.

The Aftermath

2007-11-30T00:49:00.000-08:00

As you probably know, the siege of the Manila Peninsula is over. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, read about it here.

So after all their posturing and bravado, these idiots surrendered after a whiff of teargas and a 50mm cannon pointed at their asses. They say it's to protect the civilians and the journalists-- if they're really concerned and ready to fight, they should have prevented those civilians from being there in the first place. They say they never intended to fight-- then why march down the streets with guns brandished? They say they only wanted to be heard-- last I checked, weapons, armbands, and fatigues were not prerequisites for a presscon. They should be honest that they surrendered because they saw there was no groundswell of support for their pathetic and idiotic little adventure. They wanted to launch a revolution, and they were embarrassingly shunned. Boohoo, no one wanted to attend their sad, sad party.

As I write this, Metro Manila is in the middle of a 12mn-5am curfew. Payday preceeding a three-day weekend and the bars are closed by 10pm. What really riles me is that these idiots just gave GMA the perfect reason to impose this sort of thing. If she tried this yesterday the whole country would be up in arms; because of these idiots, people are accommodating and understanding.

What doesn't topple GMA only makes her stronger. Thanks a lot, idiots.

What brave men they are

2007-11-29T16:25:00.000-08:00

Senator and ex-Navy Lieutenant Senior Grade Antonio Trillanes IV has vowed to stay at the Manila Peninsula hotel "as long as necessary".

Oh the humanity! How much more suffering to these soldiers have to endure? Their sheets have been there for half a day already, and the cordon bleu chef has left the kitchen. Why should we let them suffer in such indignity? They only walked out of their trial to defend the constitution-- why do we punish them by making them stay at an airconditioned hotel? With soft mattresses and fluffy pillows. Why do they have to suffer such pain and hardships? Isn't it enough that they braved through the fountain to get to the revolving door?

Oh, how they suffer.

Idiots, all of them! Idiots!

2007-11-29T13:56:00.000-08:00

As of this posting, read the latest here, here, and here.

I'm sick and tired of these smiley-smiley passive-aggressive confrontations. These idiots should just plan their coup properly and shoot it out already. At least Honasan had the smarts to plan his adventurism and the balls to shoot it out-- he even got to fire rockets at Malacanang! All these idiots do is barricade themselves in posh hotels and order room service. Do they want to stage a coup in airconditioned rooms? Gravel and asphalt not soft enough? "Today a hotel, tomorrow the world!" Come on, if you're gonna attempt to topple the government at least do it properly with more than a prayer's chance of success. No wonder Honasan publicly disowns you guys.

Idiots too these civil society groups and bishops who join in. They're saying this is a "spontaneous" event-- do they think we're fucking stupid? "Oh, we just happened to be in Makati with these banners and press releases when they were marching through." They can "spontaneously" combust for all I care. And look at their logic-- the government is violating the constitution, so let's use unconstitutional means to topple it. What the fuck?!?

The cops and military should just grab these people and haul them in jail, guns blazing if need be. These idiots have the gall to do this stunt because they know the cops and the military will be too pussy to do anything about it-- well prove them wrong, goddammit! Evacuate the hotel and gas them out! You can do it to unarmed people marching towards Mendiola, why not do it to armband-wearing armed putschists and their cohorts? Grab these idiots and lock them up in your camps-- you've had enough practice with students and farmers anyway.

Don't get me wrong-- the GMA administration is sleazy, corrupt, and morally bankrupt. (No news here, bishops. Don't beat yourselves with press releases of things we already know.) But there's only one thing worse than the GMA administration, and that's sleazy, corrupt, and morally bankrupt idiots who stage coups.

Ninoy must be rolling; Covetousness, Marx, and the WGA strike

2007-11-23T17:12:00.000-08:00

It's so good when you can make a commentary just by juxtaposing quotes:

"I am not against the granting of a pardon to persons who deserve it. However, people who have refused to accept their guilt and have shown no contrition for the crime they committed do not deserve pardon."
-- Sen. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III, on the pardoning of ex-Sgt. Pablo Martinez who has been in jail for 24 years for the murder of former Sen. Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino, Jr.

"I am happy for former president Joseph Ejercito Estrada and his family. I pray that as a free man, former president Estrada will harness the lessons he had learned from the sufferings he had endured and continue to serve our less fortunate brothers and sisters."
-- Former Pres. Corazon "Cory" Aquino, on the pardoning of former Pres. Joseph "Erap" Estrada barely a month after his conviction for plunder.

***

On less idiotic and irritating news, it seems brain scans have shown that relative wealth (i.e., your wealth as compared with those around you) is a more important determinant of happiness than wealth level (i.e., what you can actually buy). This comes as no surprise to anyone who has envied someone else's stuff, or boasted one's wealth and watched others salivate in envy. However, this is an area in which mainstream economics still has to catch up.

Take any microeconomics textbook and you'll find that the utility(i.e., happiness) function, U(.), is defined as U(X, L) where X is a vector of goods and services and L is leisure time (sometimes L is even left out). In the Becker-type altruism models, you get U(X, L, V) where V(X, L) is some other person's utility. However, I have not seen a utility function that explicitly takes into account the impact of covetousness on utility. That part of utility that makes people want to get one over the other guy. This might sound crass and brutish, but, if you think about it, homo economicus is supposed to the paragon of selfish behaviour, so why not extend the description?

Among the early economic theorists, it was Marx who came closest to this concept of covetousness, albeit among classes rather than individuals. He acknowledged that it is possible for the material condition of workers and peasants to improve under the capitalist mode of production; however, their material improvement comes at the expense of their social position because the capitalists get rich even faster. This was confirmed by Kuznets (and lots of other later economists), who observed that economic growth exacerbates inequality-- everyone gets richer, but the rich get a bigger share than the poor.

Which brings us to the Writers' Guild of America strike, which has deprived me of my daily dose of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Late Nights with Conan O'Brien. It's a classic problem of splitting the pie-- the writers want a bigger share of the proceeds from their labour than the producers are willing to give. Eventually they will have to settle, but only after relative bargaining strengths have been determined.

I really hope the writers win this one, but chances are they'll get a small fraction of what they're asking for. The producers have time and options on their side, and eventually some of the starving writers (and not-so-starving writers like Ellen DeGeneres) will break the picket line and go back to work.

I think a better strategy for WGA would have been to conduct their strike one network at a time. Say, begin with CBS and close down all CBS shows but keep, say, NBC running. Ratings, along with advertisers, will flock to NBC and strike fear into CBS producers' hearts, making them likely to give in to the writers' demands. After CBS comes Fox, ABC, NBC, etc., all falling one after the other. It is the threat of advertiser flight that scares these producers, not work stoppage. The writers mistakenly believed that the product of networks is shows. The product of networks is advertising airtime; the shows are just there to attract ratings. By simultaneously stopping work all the networks were equally affected by the writers' strike, so there was no ensuing advertiser flight. For producers, it is relative position that matters in attracting advertising dollars, something that the WGA missed.

Which brings us back to the article on brain scans.

Very Bad Taste

2007-11-08T21:33:00.000-08:00

Before everything, I would like to convey my condolences to the Saguisag family. They truly suffered a terrible and unimaginable loss.

I'll go straight to the point-- the Inquirer's front page today (9 November 2007) is in very bad taste. It's so bad that I think it crosses into the unethical.

Just yesterday, dr.sbdink and I were discussing another article on the accident posted at GMA News. He felt that the treatment of the story was voyeuristic; i.e., that details such as "dragged Saguisag's van by 20 to 30 meters" or "The van was crushed" were unnecessary. I took a different view-- details on the strength of impact were needed to give a complete picture. I thought those details were valid in an article reporting an accident, although I have reservations about the style of the writer (there's a reason why obituaries are separate from the news).

On the other hand, the Inquirer front page crossed the line by publishing the bodies of the dead and injured. What value does that serve in the article other than pure voyeurism? The accident picture showing the impact would have been enough-- why did they have to publish slumped bodies and shocked victims?

Publishing pictures of the dead, dying, or injured is an ethical tightrope. Even during wartime, when the horrors and evils of war are the story, it isn't an easy decision whether or not to publish these kinds of images. Editors have to ask themselves whether publishing those images is necessary, and weigh two sometimes opposing forces-- what the public needs to know vs. the dignity of the dead, dying, or injured. In war, sometimes the public does need to see in stark red how horrifying the situation is, but in an accident? Does the public really need to see that? And did the Inquirer editors even consider for a moment how the Saguisags would feel to see their slumped mother published on the front page of a national broadsheet?

Now compare this treatment to another tragic accident-- the death of Princess Dianna in 1997. Photos of a dying Princess Diana were taken and offered to various papers, but no tabloid dared publish them even ten years after the fact (they were eventually shown only in court). Dianna deserves more respect than that, and her family doesn't need to see her dying image in the corner newsstand.

Even for the British tabloid press, known for its crass sensationalism and voyeruism, some ethical lines should not be crossed.

The Contrarian Gene

2007-10-24T23:09:00.000-07:00

I read an interesting article over at BBC today: Human species 'may split in two'. It talks about the prediction of Dr. Oliver Curry, an evolutionary theorist over at the London School of Economics, that humanity will evenutally split into two strands-- the "tall, slim, healthy, attractive, intelligent, and creative" upper class and the "dim-witted, ugly, squat goblin-like" underclass. The article mentions the similarity with H.G. Wells' The Time Machine-- I haven't read the book but I saw the 1960 movie adaptation one late sleepless night.

Curry's notions of "upper class" and "underclass" have nothing to do with income or race; rather, they refer to the selection of sexual mates. He posits that as people become choosier about their sexual partners, hot+smart people will only choose to mate with other hot+smart people, while those who are fugly+dumb are left to mate among themselves-- a separating equilibrium with looks as a signal of health and intelligence, to use game theoretic jargon. Browsing Curry's work it seems he applied game theory in his analysis of evolution, and I have to say his analysis is consistent with the framework. It is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for the hot+smart set to mate with each other, leaving those not in the set (ergo fugly+dumb) to mate among themselves. One can argue that there are hot+dumb and fugly+smart people out there, but after eons of choosing mates the fugly+smart people will choose hot mates and hot+dumb ones will choose smart mates, eventually resulting in the separating equilibrium described by Curry.

I haven't seen Curry's paper on this theory (can't find it on the net), but I'd like to see how he tackles people who are "irrational" by ESS standards-- those that do not follow what reason tells them to do. While Darwinian natural selection is a slow but straightforward process, it is the contrarian mutations in a small percentage of people that makes the species leap and take sharp turns. These are the people who, from an ESS/rational standpoint throw all caution in the wind and think up or do new things. The contrarian gene that makes some people climb skyscrapers and jump out of planes is the same gene that led early man out of Africa and take to the seas. This contrarian gene is a wildcard-- it can either lead to destruction or greatness; the lack of it (i.e., doing the ESS all the time) leads to mediocrity.

Applying this to Curry's theory, if the hot+smart people are indeed the offspring of successful generations, I would guess that they will have a relatively higher proportion of people with the contrarian gene as they are descendants of geniuses and adventurers. Therefore, these hot+smart contrarians may not choose the ESS and instead mate with some of the fugly+dumb set. If this happens during the process of evolution, it will have implications on the separating equilibrium as described by Curry.

So this is the question that interests me in this and other economic theories-- how robust is it to "irrationality"? Will it stand if x% of people do not follow the ESS? How about x+1%? Theorists have to remember that in any situation where human behaviour is aggregated some proportion will not act according to the rules of rationality. There will always be contrarians in the mix-- those who go left when all reason says to go right-- who will mess up the outcome. We cannot simply assume away these contrarians because a lot of who we are today is an outcome of their "irrationality". After all, if everyone followed ESS we would all still be in Africa.

Kuala Lumpur, T minus 1 hour

2007-10-16T18:10:00.000-07:00

At the KLIA lounge now, waiting for boarding. It was hectic the past three days, but it was productive. Glad to be going home. My friend dr.sbink was kind enough to offer to pick me up at the airport (thanks, dude).

I only got to buy stuff yesterday afternoon when I went to Bukit Bintang. Very uncharacteristically, I bought something on a spur-- a new laptop! Electronics are insanely cheap in KL (relative to Manila), so I couldn't pass up the oportunity for a bargain. I bought a souped-up Toshiba Satellite M200. I actually perplexes me why electronics are so darn expensive in Manila.

Based on my experience, average electronics prices are cheapest in KL, then the Bay Area (which is known for its high prices), and most expensive in Manila. Therefore, the high cost in Manila cannot be due to transportation costs because electronics are cheap in SFO, and the Dell I bought was actualy assembled in Malaysia. So is it taxes? Market imperfections? Something worthy of investigation.

Kuala Lumpur, Day 1

2007-10-12T11:32:00.000-07:00

(Exchange rate: US$ 1 = 3.31 Malaysian ringgit; RM 1 = PHP 13.38)

Arrived in Kuala Lumpur a few hours ago. Today is Hari Raya Adilfitri-- the end of Ramadan-- in Malaysia, and the were correct: the city is empty. There are very few people in the streets today and the restaurants are relatively empty (by relatively I mean compared to when I was here in December last year).

Kuala Lumpur, at least the parts I get to see, is much better than Manila. The airport can compare with any airport in developed countries-- even better than LHR, SFO, or NRT. The streets are smooth and feathery and the cab can travel at an average speed of 100 kph from the airport to downtown KL. I don't see slums in every corner, and the streets are generally clean. While there are a few beggars here and there, they're not seen in swarms like in Manila.

It disappoints me to see such development in KL; disappointed not for KL but for Manila. When can we ever catch up?

Manila, T minus 24 hours

2007-10-11T00:37:00.000-07:00

I'll be going to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, tomorrow, 12 October 2007. Tomorrow is actually Hari Raya Puasa, the end of Ramadan, in Malaysia. I hear that everyone will be gone tomorrow and next week, so we'll pretty much have the city to ourselves. I also hear that the government made all shops promise that they'll remain open during the holidays, which is extra good for us. I just hope the sales people won't be too grumpy because we're the reason they have to go to work on a holiday.

Hopefully I'll have time to write here in between meetings, although by the looks of it my schedule will be tight. And I will more likely write in my other blog as I'm hoping to make food the highlight of my trip.

Survey Says...

2007-10-09T22:52:00.001-07:00

Family, not sex, is Pinoys’ No. 1 source of happiness (from the Inquirer)
How Happy are Pinoys with Sex? (by Dr. Romulo Virola, Secretary General, NSCB)

Despite the titles, note that the results cannot be generalised in any way. The data are from a pilot survey among 167 nonrandom respondents taken from participants in a meeting; therefore, one cannot generalise these results to the general Filipino population (or to the meeting participants' population, for that matter). So no need to be surprised. Yet.

What surprised me is the write-up in the Inquirer. If you only read the write-up, it would seem that the results are from a full-fledged National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) study, which would make the study laughable given the sample selection and size. However, going to the source article by Virola, you get the sense that the results are from an informal study done after a meeting-- equal in generalisability to a Best Dressed survey. He repeatedly points out that the results are from nonrandom respondents as a caution to the readers-- a caveat lost in the Inquirer article. More importantly, Virola attributes the results only to the sample, while the Inquirer write-up uses generalising language ("among Filipinos")-- a glaring misrepresentation.

The Inquirer reporter should have stressed that the results were in no way generalisable; however, doing so would trivialise the article. Which is exactly the problem-- they were trying to make news out of a non-event. They could have referred to the results in passing as part of a bigger story on Filipino sexuality or sexual taboos. Instead, the results were made the story.

Having worked in media, I know the pressures of putting some spin in your article to ensure that it makes the press, particularly on matters as staid as statistical data. However, as someone who also does survey work, I draw the line at misleading the readers in interpreting the data. Reporters have the responsibility to aid the readers in reading the data and lay out any and all caveats to interpretation. Statistics are difficult enough to understand and malleable enough to be spun; we don't need to add misrepresentation to the mix.
---
Below are the results of the nonrandom pilot survey, taken from NSCB:

Woman on Top

2007-10-05T00:20:00.000-07:00

Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko
Former Prime Minister
Ukraine

Born in 1960 in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine.
Married Olexandr Tymoshenko in 1979. Gave birth to daughter Yevhenia in 1980.
Obtained her degree in Economics in 1984 from the Dnepropetrovsk State University, after which she worked as an economics engineer in a Soviet machine-building plant.
Opened a video rental chain in 1991 after perestroika.
Became the Managing Director of the State-owned Ukranian Oil Company (UOC) in 1991, which was eventually privatised and became the United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU).
Became President of UESU in 1995, during which she amassed a huge personal wealth and was nicknamed the "gas princess".
Elected Member of Parliament in 1996, representing the Kirovograd Oblast.
Became Deputy Prime Minister for fuel and energy issues in 1999 under then-Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, a post she held until 2001.
Arrested in February 2001 over forgery and smuggling charges during her presidency of UESU; the charges were eventually dismissed.
Led protests against then-President Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovich, eventually culminating in the Orange Revolution in 2005.
Appointed Prime Minister of Ukraine by President Viktor Yushchenko on 24 January 2005.
Dismissed as Prime Minister on 8 Septembr 2005 amid in-fighting and resignations among her ministers.
Her Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYT)-- a coalition of three parties-- remains a formidable power in parliament, winning 31% of seats during the 2007 parliamentary elections.
Probably the only Head of Government to be on the cover of a fashion magazine; her hair was recently featured on BBC.
Has a personal website.

Lest We Forget

2007-09-20T19:55:00.000-07:00

PROCLAMATION No. 1081 September 21, 1972

PROCLAIMING A STATE OF MARTIAL LAW IN THE PHILIPPINES

x x x

NOW, THEREFORE, I, FERDINAND E. MARCOS, President of the Philippines, by virtue of the powers vested upon me by Article VII, Section 10, Paragraph ('2) of the Constitution, do hereby place the entire Philippines as defined in Article I, Section 1 of the Constitution under martial law and, in my capacity as their commander-in-chief, do hereby command the armed forces of the Philippines, to maintain law and order throughout the Philippines, prevent or suppress all forms of lawless violence as well as any act of insurrection or rebellion and to enforce obedience to all the laws and decrees, orders and regulations promulgated by me personally or upon my direction.

In addition, I do hereby order that all persons presently detained, as well as all others who may hereafter be similarly detained for the crimes of insurrection or rebellion, and all other crimes and offenses committed in furtherance or on the occasion thereof, or incident thereto, or in connection therewith, for crimes against national security and the law of nations, crimes against public order, crimes involving usurpation of authority, rank, title and improper use of names, uniforms and insignia, crimes committed by public officers, and for such other crimes as will be enumerated in Orders that I shall subsequently promulgate, as well as crimes as a consequence of any violation of any decree, order or regulation promulgated by me personally or promulgated upon my direction shall be kept under detention until otherwise ordered re- leased by me or by my duly designated representative.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the Republic of the Philippines to be affixed.

Done in the City of Manila, this 21st day of September, in the year of Our Lord, nineteen hundred and seventy two.

FERDINAND E. MARCOS
President
Republic of the Philippines

Amen! (3)

2007-09-16T19:40:00.000-07:00

By now you all know that former President Joseph Estrada was found guilty of plunder. I was going to comment on the events that happened since the verdict, particularly on what's been said in many quarters. However, my thoughts were exactly captured by the Inquirer's editiorial today. Usually I just give the link when I make one of my Amen! posts, but this editorial merits a full paste.
---
Legal Insanity
Philippine Daily Inquirer Editorial, 17 September 2007

MANILA, Philippines - Those who choose to view the Estrada verdict as a half-empty glass of dubious water are not doing the country any favors. Yes, other plunderers continue to roam the land. Yes, Mr. ex-Marcos justice minister Estelito Mendoza, other public officials continue to rake in enormous amounts of commissions from jueteng, and plunder cases can be filed against them. (Would you like to start the ball rolling?) And yes, certain scandals since Joseph Estrada fled Malacañang call for the most severe legal accounting.

But do these extraneous facts diminish Estrada’s guilt one whit?

Lawyers who think so are indulging a form of legal insanity. They taint the legal process with innuendo or outright contempt, unmindful of or uncaring about their impact on the rule of law itself. What do they want to do, run themselves out of a job?

As we have said time and again, both the Arroyo administration and the Estrada camp have sought to politicize the plunder trial. But the conduct of the Sandiganbayan justices themselves and their measured decision prove that the anti-graft court’s Special Division confined itself to the facts and the law of the case at hand.

To be sure, the stature of the principal defendant was not lost on the justices; the decision unfailingly refers to him as “FPres. Estrada,” apparently a new honorific. And as we saw on live television, the division’s three justices were ready to allow Estrada’s continued detention, pending final conviction, in his Tanay, Rizal rest house even before his defense counsel raised the possibility (or even after Estrada lawyer Rene Saguisag pandered to the off-site gallery by declaring, airily, that his client did not want special treatment). But we do not believe the rule of law suffered when the former president was accorded these minor courtesies.

It needs to be stressed: the court’s independence, as evidenced in its decision, is triumph enough. Its well-tempered decision on the plunder case, however, is a true legal landmark.

Those who insist that Estrada’s guilt is contingent on the sins, perceived or real, of the Arroyo administration are preaching a false and cynical faith. Not because these sins do not exist; they do, and the administration’s continuing refusal to testify in Congress about various scandals is the surest proof that it has something to hide. But because those who insist are attacking the very rule of law they claim to defend.

To use an unsavory but necessary analogy: Do we stop ourselves from pursuing a case against a rapist, because other rapists have gone scot-free or because other rapes have not been reported? This is not legal realism, or even the realpolitik of law; this is “weather-weather” defeatism, a cynic’s formula for anarchy.

Other plunderers roam the land? Then let’s throw the book at them too. The good thing is, now we can apply the vital lessons learned from the Estrada plunder trial.
Perhaps first on the list: Involve private lawyers in the preparation and the prosecution. Private law firms can bring otherwise unavailable financial resources and litigation expertise to bear on the case, complementing the work of government prosecutors.

Support government lawyers to the hilt, not least in the matter of which state witnesses to use (necessarily a decision with political considerations). Over-prove the charges, not only through the use of incontrovertible documentary evidence but also through redundant corroborative testimony. And while landing a Chavit Singson is both distasteful but necessary, build the real case with the help of a Clarissa Ocampo—upstanding witnesses with unimpeachable credibility.

It’s tough work—and therefore all the more reason to praise the government prosecutors led by Dennis Villa-Ignacio (and spearheaded once upon a time by then-Solicitor General Simeon Marcelo). Tough and—if you listen to the snide Saguisag—fundamentally thankless. Estrada’s lawyers believe they had a monopoly not only on the truth of the case but even on sincerity of conviction. It is our duty to disabuse them of their final illusion.

9/11

2007-09-11T01:46:00.000-07:00

I was in America when 9/11 happened. Not in New York but on the other side of the country: the San Francisco Bay Area. It was a sunny Tuesday morning, I remember, and as usual I woke up around 8:15 in the morning to prepare for work which was just a 20-minute bus ride away. I was living with my cousin then, and usually by the time I wake up he has already left for work; that day, I saw him watching the news with a grave look that will only be clear to me in the moments to follow.

"Planes crashed into the World Trade Center," he said. "The towers are gone." He had just visited the towers a few weeks back, bringing me a souvenir keychain.

"What do you mean they're gone?" I asked. "How could they be gone?"

"They're gone. They fell into the ground. Like in the demolition movies," he replied.

By the time I woke up it was already 11:15 in New York and all the events of 9/11 had transpired. Details were still hazy-- there were rumours that bombs detonated all over Washington, that the Air Force just shot down another plane, that around 10,000 people may have died.

Before I got the complete picture I took my usual bus ride to work. No one made a sound in the bus that day-- no chatty old men, no teeners tapping their cd-man-- but the mood was electric. Everyone was aware of what happened and the shock was at its strongest.

My officemates and I immediately talked about what happened and all the theories of who did it. We learned that the best friend of one of my officemates worked in WTC-- she made it out. We watched footages via video streaming, which was still very low quality those days. Over and over, we watched as UA175 hit the South Tower-- there were no footages of the other attacks yet. Airplanes usually pass over our office building, which is just a 15-minute drive from the San Francisco Airport. That day there were no flights and silence replaced the usual roar of passing planes.

By lunch time, our boss allowed us to go home. There was less traffic than usual along El Camino Real that day, so it took longer to get a bus home. While waiting for a bus I saw a lone young man-- maybe in his late teens or early 20's-- walking the length of the thoroughfare waving the American flag. I saw more flags on the way home, and even more being put up. I decided to get a flag myself.

Looking back after six years, nothing really compares to the mood and electricity of that day. Even I, whose politics you all know, proudly waved the Stars and Stripes. It was a shared feeling of shock and anger at what happened, tempered by the empathy one felt for his community and his country. Politics was set aside, replaced only by the oneness that can only come after a shared jarring experience. As famously written by Jean-Marie Colombani in Le Monde: Nous sommes tous Americains. We are all Americans.

Looking back after six years, I am truly saddened that things turned out the way they did. How, from a point of almost unshakeable unity, policy after disastrous policy has given us the utterly polarised world and America we now see. How the world's compassion and support was met with arrogance and contempt.

We were all Americans.

Woman on Top

2007-09-04T23:04:00.001-07:00

Due to insistent public demand (you know who you are)...

Dana Marie Perino
Deputy Press Secretary
United States of America

Born in 1972 in Evanston, Wyoming
Graduated in 1994 from the University of Southern Colorado with a bachelor's degree in mass communications, minor in politics and Spanish.
Obtained her master's degree in Public Affairs Reporting from the University of Illinois in Springfield.
Began her career in Washington, DC, by working in Capitol Hill, first for Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colorado) then Rep. Daniel Schaefer (R-Colorado).
Served as the spokesperson for the Deprtment of Justice in 2001, then as Director of the Council on Environmental Quality in the White House.
Appointed by President George W. Bush as Deputy Press Secretary on 31 March 2006.
Less irritating, less condescending, and less obfuscating than Tony Snow.
The only good thing to come out of the White House press room these days.

I Knew It

2007-08-22T23:05:00.000-07:00

I knew it... I'm evil.

I AM
64%
MEGATRON
Megatron is the leader of the Decepticons. He will stop at nothing to establish his empire and destroy the Autobots, starting with Optimus Prime.

Like Megatron, you are not compassionate and harbor evil thoughts. You are inspiring, confident, and a natural leader. The Decepticons have chosen well. In addition, you stick to the basics and don't need all the encumberances of modern technology.
---
Thanks to cyberlaundry for the test.

Annuit coeptis: The Theoretical Chef

2007-08-20T19:03:00.000-07:00

I just started a new blog: The Theoretical Chef. It's a food-related blog (obviously). It has two posts now, the first one explaining the title. Do visit it if you have time, assuming you haven't lost your appetite after reading this blog.

What ryhmes with "Aumentado"?

2007-08-13T18:41:00.000-07:00

From inquirer.net: Boom Boom's village loses road project after boxer's loss

So Gov. Erico Aumentado of Bohol (seen right) will cement the provincial road connecting Can-uling to the rest of the world if and only if boxer Rey "Boom-boom" Bautista becomes champion. Wow. I was thinking of some analogy that will show the absurdity of the situation, but, man, nothing beats the real thing.

In his message on his official website, he describes Bohol as the "Island of History and Natural Beauty". Yeah, nothing harks back to the rustic pre-colonial days like a dirt road.

So, what rhymes with "Aumentado"? It'll come to you.

Amen! (2)

2007-07-30T23:19:00.001-07:00

Judge shuts out Trillanes

How right Judge Pimentel is not to "parrot" the special treatment to Erap and Nur. Enough of this insanity of special treatment for special prisoners-- it makes a mockery of the concept of blind justice. Maybe the Sandiganbayan should learn a thing or two from Pimentel.

But, of course, comes the criticism: Beltran: `Ruling on Trillanes betrays govt fears'. Immediately, Pimentel's decision is politicised-- the one instance where a judge makes a decision not based on politics but on the rule of law, he gets politicised. (Ok, I can't know whether or not Pimentel decided sans political considerations, but his reasoning-- or the snippets published-- seems to be in the right place.) I guess cases involving politicians will always be politicised.

Now the administration can lay claim to rule of law and equal application of justice, while the opposition is reduced to politicising the judiciary. Sigh. Comments like Beltran's based on partisan knee-jerk just help prop up this bankrupt administration. Paraphrasing Burke: The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to constantly put their feet in their mouth.

Quote of the Day

2007-07-25T23:27:00.000-07:00

"No disciple of any school of economics can afford to close his eyes to a new discovery, obtained from another point of view, which will not fit in with his own ideas, nor must he treat it as unimportant, if not incorrect."

Henry Schultz

28 December 1926

The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 35 No. 5 (Oct. 1927), pp702-706

Law & Order: Trial by Technicality

2007-07-18T18:05:00.000-07:00

The Supreme Court recently announced that it will amend the rules on criminal procedure, possibly even the rules on evidence. Reforms of any kind-- legal, economic, political-- give us a chance to compare what is and what ought to be. Now, I'm nowhere near an expert in legal theory and am not a practitioner of law, but I'd like to take a look at some of the rules on evidence, particularly the so-called poisonous tree. Please bear with me if I mix up my legal terms or processes; feel free to educate me. To lay my point let us consider a hypothetical but very likely situation:

[thun-thun]

An eight-year-old girl goes missing in the park; a few metres from where she was playing, blood and several teeth are found by passers-by. SOCO confirm that the blood and teeth belong to the missing girl. SPO4 Lenny Brusko investigates-- there are no witnesses to the attack and abduction, and there is no evidence in the scene that can point to any suspect. However, some witnesses say they saw Manny Yakis-- a known violent sex offender who recently got out of prison-- walking in the park on the day the girl disappeared, but no one can say that there was any contact between the two. Brusko, after 30 years on the job, has a hunch that Yakis is their guy.

Brusko invites Yakis for questioning. Yakis is careful with his answers, giving Brusko nothing but leering eyes and tonnes of frustration. Jack Makoy, the fiscal who will prosecute the case, says they don't have enough evidence on Yakis to secure an arrest or search warrant. With no other leads to follow, Brusko stakes out Yakis' apartment.

After three days of staking out and no other sources of evidence in sight, Brusko is getting very worried, believing that the girl is being harmed in the apartment. Claiming he heard a scream from inside Yakis' apartment, Brusko breaks down the door and finds the body of the missing girl, along with the club that broke several of her teeth in the park, the plastic-lined duffel bag which he used to cary the girl, and the kitchen knife he used to stab her. Brusko immediately arrests Yakis, knocking the perp unconscious in the scuffle. The coroner identifies the cause of death as loss of blood due to multiple stab wounds-- she has been dead for two days. Yakis' semen is found on the girl's body. Confronted with this evidence, Yakis, alone with Brusko and a camcorder in the interrogation room, confesses to the crime. He is then assigned a public attorney for his trial.

During the arraignment, Yakis' defense attorney files a motion to throw away all evidence gathered from Yakis' apartment because they were found in a warrantless search-- he can prove beyond any doubt that the scream Brusko supposedly heard never happened. The attorney also files a motion to throw away the confession because (1) this was brought about by evidence from the warrantless search and (2) Yakis wasn't informed of his rights when he was arrested because Brusko knocked him unconscious. Noting that the police and prosecution have no other evidence on Yakis aside from those gathered in his apartment, the defense attorney files a motion to dismiss the case due to lack of evidence.

Under current rules of evidence, the judge has no choice but to grant the defense attorney's motions to throw away all evidence on Yakis because they are all fruits of the poisonous tree-- they are all tainted evidence. Brusko conducted a warrantless search and lied about exigent circumstances, and Yakis' confession was obtained without him knowing about his rights. The judge will have to dismiss the case due to lack of admissible evidence because he will have to pretend that he never saw the girl's body and the perp's confession. Even if the judge rules that double jeopardy does not apply, Yakis will remain free unless Brusko can find evidence that is not in any way linked to the contents of the apartment.

I clearly understand the need to prevent agents of the State from committing abuses such as warrantless arrests and searches. No one wants to see overzealous detectives overstep the rights of the accused-- allowing one noble detective to overstep the lines will lead to other less noble ones doing the same and before we know it it's as if the Magna Carta never existed. There is a clear need to protect people from the State's agents given their immense powers.

But is it really in the interest of justice and human rights to overlook what we know is true? In the case above, two people committed crimes: Yakis and Brusko. If the judge does not admit the evidence and dismisses the case, Yakis and Brusko will both go free (ok, Brusko will have a bad day, maybe a stern warning from his boss) but the real victims-- the girl and her family-- will be denied justice. How can a wrong correct two wrongs?

I understand that the purpose of the doctrine on tainted evidence is to prevent abuses by agents of the State. But instead of completely ignoring the truth, even from tainted evidence, why not simply criminalise acts that taint the evidence? Say, life in prison for a warratntless search or illegal wiretap, or the errant cop joins the perp in jail for the duration of the latter's sentence. This way the criminal goes to jail along with the abusive agent of the State, giving justice to both the victims and the criminal justice system.

I'm not arguing that the end justifies the means; on the contrary, agents of the State who abuse their power should be punished harshly, even as harsh as the criminals they convict. But I think it's wrong to deny the truth-- to pretend that what we know as true does not exist-- just to punish those who abuse their police powers. In fact, the present doctrine on tainted evidence is incentive incompatible-- those who abuse their powers (i.e., agents of the State) are not held personally liable for their actions. Their punishment, if you can call it that, comes mainly in the form of dismissed cases. There is a mismatch between the crime, which is a personal decision by the abusive agent, and the punishment, which is borne by society in the form of a dismissed case (not to mention a criminal on the loose). We want agents of the State to do their jobs well, within the bounds of the law, and respecting the rights of the accused-- I think the prospect of a long prison term provides more of a deterrent against abuse than potentially dismissed cases.

I can't see how ignoring facts, wherever they're from, helps the cause of justice. It's weak as a deterrent and does not really hit abusive agents of the State where it hurts. Now that we are considering revising the rules on criminal procedure and evidence, what is the philosophical reason not to change the doctrine on tainted evidence and fruits of the poisoned tree? Aren't justice and the justice system served by considering the facts-- all facts-- and punishing all who did wrong?

As I said earlier, I'm nowhere near an expert in legal theory and am not a practitioner of law. If you are, and you think I'm way off, please educate me.

Unleash Hell

2007-07-13T01:50:00.000-07:00

By now, everyone is painfully aware of the beheading of 10 Marines who died in an ambush by MILF/Abu Sayyaf/unlawful elements in Tipo-Tipo, Basilan. It is undisputed that the atrocity happened in an MILF-controlled area, and the group says it will conduct its own investigation into the matter. On the other hand, the AFP is holding their punches and will instead file appropriate complaints with the Coordinating Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH), a committee created as part of the peace process between the GRP and MILF.

WHAT THE FUCK!?! These savages (as President Arroyo rightly called them) beheaded our soldiers and all the AFP will do about it is sue? I'm all for the peace process, but I say the peace process is all messed up when your negotiating partner launches an ambush and is in the business of coddling these savages in their bosom. (Yes, it's an ambush, not a chance encounter as the MILF would like us to believe.) Something is terribly wrong here.

Here is a better response: tell the MILF to surrender these savages to the government in two days. If they don't do it then unleash hell on their camps and send snipers on their leaders. The MILF launched the attack; even if they weren't the ones who beheaded the Marines they know who did it. There is no reason for them to not produce these savages in two days.

Fuck the CCCH. Give the MILF two days to produce these savages or we unleash hell.

Loss of Political Capital

2007-06-28T19:52:00.000-07:00

Vote dashes Bush immigration plan (on BBC)

It is unfortunate that in the one issue where Bush is acting in a non-partisan manner, where his views are balanced and his actions tempered, he is torpedoed by his own party. In the one issue where there is a tinge of the "compassionate conservative" in him, the, um, uncompassionate conservatives win the day. Too bad, he lost so much political capital over Iraq that he can't even get his good policies out.

Anti-Americanism explained

2007-06-27T18:54:00.000-07:00

The BBC is having a series on anti-Americanism to be aired over Radio 4 in the UK. Based to the article, it seems to challenge the concept of anti-Americanism as a reaction to American foreign policy, putting it in the same hate box as anti-Semitism or racism. The correspondent, Jim Webb, "argues anti-Americanism is often a cover for hatreds with little justification in fact". He travels to Paris, Caracas, Cairo, and Washington to study this phenomenon. Too bad I don't get Radio 4 in this part of the world-- it would've been good to listen in.

It is apparent in the article that the series has a benign veiw of America, attributing anti-Americanism in Paris as a reaction to America's "kind of democracy that celebrates and encourages ordinariness" (i.e., the elitist and cultured French aristocrat versus the egalitarian but uncouth American cowboy). But whatever the etiology of French anti-American sentiment is, what I'm more concerned about is the sentiment as a reaction to American foreign policy-- is it well placed? Webb discusses it early on in the article. After seeing an anti-American protest in London, he observes:

"A pattern was emerging and has never seriously been altered. A pattern of willingness to condemn America for the tiniest indiscretion - or to magnify those indiscretions - while leaving the murderers, dictators, and thieves who run other nations oddly untouched. "

What Webb fails to comprehend is that this strong reaction to America's "tiniest indiscretion" is actually an acknowledgement that it is expected to have moral ascendancy. The world demands more of America and is very disappointed when it acts like other thuggish countries.

More than any other country in the world and more than any other superpower in history, America has trumpeted itself as the beacon of democracy and human rights. The British never claimed to spread democracy in India-- it was honest that it's all about expanding the British Empire. America, on the other hand, never owned up to its imperial past, pointing to Manifest Destiny as the reason for denying the nascent Filipino government its independence.

America prides itself in its democratic ideals and its wide open arms to all peoples. It claims to defend human rights and civil liberties, and promises to defend the world against oppressive regimes. And, to a large extent, the world believed that. That is why the world bristles at America's "tiniest indiscretions"-- it cannot claim to defend democracy and human rights and democracy while destroying them with its actions. America has proclaimed itself to be the good guy, the defender of the "huddled masses yearning to breathe free". Its actions have shown us otherwise. That is why there is so much anti-Americanism in the world-- it's a reaction against hypocrisy. That is why America is so easily condemned for its "tiniest indiscretions".

There is one thing the world hates more than murderers, dictators, and thieves. It is self-righteous murderers, dictators, and thieves.